Revolutions that go wrong

[Eric]

My local paper UNT has a couple of perceptive articles this morning about revolutions, one the anonymous leader (or editorial), the other an article on Greece by one Bo Pellnäs, commentator on security policy.

In the leader it says:

The Swedish media shares part of the responsibility for the surprise that many seem to express that the Arabic Spring is turning to winter. All too often, people have turned themselves into the uncritical mouthpiece (or spokesperson) for young opposition voices, bloggers and journalists where a catching, but not always too well-grounded, optimism holds sway.

And Pellnäs, about Greece, points out that economists are not always experts in national security policy. As he says.

Few have pointed out that Greece, Portugal and Spain are all young democracies with a dark political past. Nor do people explain why Estonia, an even younger democracy, as opposed to Greece shows the political energy to manage an economy that got out of hand.

Praise to people who say it clearly. We were all enthusiastic about Tunisia, then Egypt. But since then weve had Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen, which have not been classic happy revolutions. And the three economic basket cases within the EU are also a cause for concern.

[Amoxcalli]

To be honest I don't understand the optimism that surrounds the Arab Spring. I don't think there has been a single revolution in history that didn't go (horribly) wrong at some point. The French Revolution planted the seeds for the Terror and Napoleon's dictatorship, the Russian revolution certainly didn't give the proletariat the freedom from oppression for which they fought and even though the year of revolutions was 1848, most working classes in Europe had to wait till the late 19th or early 20th century before they could actually vote.

I know a little about Egypt, and I don't think a lot will change as a result of the Arab Spring. There are two institutions with a lot of power in Egypt: the military and the civil service (Mahfouz wrote a novella called "Respected Sir" about the latter). Both are strongly hierarchical and neither is accessible to the youth that was the driving force behind the Arab Spring in Egypt. I don't pretend to know what will happen in Egypt, but I wouldn't put my money on any significant changes in the near future. Like Assad and unlike Gaddhafi, Mubarak needed the support of high-ranking civil and military officials to stay in power.

I think Pellnäs has a solid point. I've yet to read an analysis of the causes of Portugal, Spain and Greece's economic troubles that goes beyond "Greeks are lazy". I'd be interested to know if and why Estonia (and Poland as well, I believe) managed to keep economic troubles in check and the Mediterranean countries didn't.

[Eric]

I'm also waiting with some trepidation to see what will happen in reality, as opposed to in the minds of enthusiastic Westerners. I agree entirely with Amoxcalli that the French and Russian revolutions, however idealistically they started, ended up as sadistic bloodbaths.

The citizens of the Arab countries seem divided and uneducated, therefore subject to the propaganda of the most skilful.

Whatever cosmetic or cosmic changes occur in Egypt, we must not forget that the USA has bought the Egyptians most of their arms over the last decade or two, and therefore have some clout over what the Egyptians do. The USA would not let Egypt use those arms to start a war with Israel.

Yemen seems to be in meltdown, with their half-burnt president-dictator lying in a hospital in Saudi. Al Qaeda now have an excellent opportunity to fill the country with its operatives, while the average Yemeni is running around wondering where to get the next unburnt president from.

No one seems to be stopping the Basher of Syria from massacring his citizens. He seems to killed about 1,000 of them, and yet the world is protesting in horror when 20 Syrians are (maybe, who has proved it?) been shot dead by the Israelis when they try to illegally cross the border into their former homeland.

We intellectuals and university students can merely watch from the sidelines. But no one (?) is stopping us from having opinions.

[Eric]

That was the Arabs. But Greece-Portugal-Spain is a different kettle of fish. All three have oscillated between fascist dictatorships and communist revolt, at various times over the past half-century. They have now all joined the EU and the euro, but seem to be dragging the EU down with their bad handling of, for instance, unemployment - which is very high in all three countries. Greeks may not be lazy, but their government has made life for the civil service too cushy, and now the Germans appear to have bought up 10% of their companies or something similar, as I read today, in a desperate attempt to stop Greece from wrecking Europe. Obviously, ordinary Germans are not pleased at having to pay for the faults of others. While Merkel is getting her medal from Obama, German taxpayers will be fuming, not least because of the unhappy coincidence of the E.coli scare.

[Eric]

Maybe the Greeks will have to grow up. Here is a photo reproduced from the German daily Die Welt:

[Amoxcalli]

No one seems to be stopping the Basher of Syria from massacring his citizens. He seems to killed about 1,000 of them, and yet the world is protesting in horror when 20 Syrians are (maybe, who has proved it?) been shot dead by the Israelis when they try to illegally cross the border into their former homeland.

There are rumours he's been filling cargo containers with people and dumping them in sea. I don't know whether that's true, but then, probably few people do.

I think there's a perfectly reasonable explanation for the latter. Firstly, we have reliable sources that claim it happened (both parties confirm) and secondly, we expect different things from Israel and Syria. If twenty people are executed for their political views in China, it'll struggle to even make the paper (unless one of them is called Ai Weiwei). If twenty people are executed for their political views in Sweden, it'll be front-page news for weeks. Same goes for Israel and Syria.

The citizens of the Arab countries seem divided and uneducated, therefore subject to the propaganda of the most skilful.

True, except for Tunisia, which has a relatively large (unemployed) layer of educated youth. Of all Arab Spring countries, I'm the most optimistic about Tunisia, for this reason.

We intellectuals and university students can merely watch from the sidelines.

Goes for most people, even government leaders.

[Eric]

I too am relatively optimistic about Tunisia. But it may take a generation, and there may be many PhD hairdressers and roadsweepers in France before they can return to their homeland with some chance of a job equivalent to their education.

I have to admit that if twenty people have been executed here in Sweden during the past week for criticising the baldness of the Leader, I haven't actually noticed. Even the escapades of the purportedly randy King are merely internal Swedish news. So I am obviously horrified at the sheer ignorance, stupidity, and apathy of the people who have invented cultural relativism as an excuse to ignore the firing squads in China, and the lunatic antics of the sad Ozymandias of Libya who may be blown up any day now.

While Ai WeiWei has a silly name and may be an art-charlatan par excellence, this does not disguise the fact that he has been spirited away in a similar way to how Aung San Suu Kyi was conveniently removed from the democratic process for being a nuisance. Where are all those WeiWei groupies now that it counts? Wasn't he, for them, the greatest Chinese artist for the last thousand years? But now he's in trouble, all the trendies seem to have forgotten him.

[Amoxcalli]

I have to admit that if twenty people have been executed here in Sweden during the past week for criticising the baldness of the Leader, I haven't actually noticed. Even the escapades of the purportedly randy King are merely internal Swedish news. So I am obviously horrified at the sheer ignorance, stupidity, and apathy of the people who have invented cultural relativism as an excuse to ignore the firing squads in China, and the lunatic antics of the sad Ozymandias of Libya who may be blown up any day now.

Not cultural relativism, just economics. China or Syria executing people isn't new, so it isn't news. I think few people aren't horrified by what happens in these countries.

While Ai WeiWei has a silly name and may be an art-charlatan par excellence, this does not disguise the fact that he has been spirited away in a similar way to how Aung San Suu Kyi was conveniently removed from the democratic process for being a nuisance. Where are all those WeiWei groupies now that it counts? Wasn't he, for them, the greatest Chinese artist for the last thousand years? But now he's in trouble, all the trendies seem to have forgotten him.

Well there's a large sign "Release Ai Weiwei" on the Tate Modern, and Amnesty International has been campaigning, but otherwise, it's no doubt easy to forget about him and the others who have vanished and possibly killed.

[Eric]

I'm glad you're becoming as cynical as I am, Amoxcalli. This suggests that there are still people on this planet that care about things.

[Eric]

Anyone remember the once so popular Arab Spring? Here's an article which makes sobering reading:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ab-Spring.html

[Eric]

I note that the Yanks are rather dissatisfied with certain events in "Arab Spring" Egypt:

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta phoned Tantawi on Monday and demanded that he lift the travel ban.American aid to Egypt includes a yearly stipend of $ 1.3 billion to the army and an additional $300 million in economic aid.

Is the Arab Spring still on course? If so there'll be loads of novels written about liberation and democracy, which we'll all be able to read in translation. If not, there'll be more bans, silence, arrests, disappearings, and bloodshed. Ditto Syria.

Only when writers have the peace and quiet of a democracy and a lack of civil unrest, can they get on with the job of writing sophisticated literature. Otherwise all they write is propaganda and polemic.

One-point-six billion American dollars is a helluva lot of money.

[Eric]

I thought that football was invented partly to channel the energies of violent males:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16845841

Perhaps they should go to more poetry readings instead, but maybe then the audience would riot and kill.

[Heteronym]

Few have pointed out that Greece, Portugal and Spain are all young democracies with a dark political past. Nor do people explain why Estonia, an even younger democracy, as opposed to Greece shows the political energy to manage an economy that got out of hand.

I don't really see what's the relevance of these countries' recent dictatorships to their current economic crises, but it seems political pundits continue to ignore the signs that tell us that the problem is global and not local, systemic and not reducible to quick-and-easy soundbytes. Italy, Belgium, Malta, Ireland are also in the same "basket" now; the UK and France pretend they're not, but they're already applying their own austerity measures to avoid the inevitable. And little by little, they'll drag Germany down to their level. It's a matter of waiting.

As for Poland, I'd argue Poland has little to fear from the markets because everything the markets are destroying, is gone already in Poland. It's no surprise to any well-informed European citizen that these austerity measures are nothing but means to, under the guise of an economic crisis, get rid of the labor legislation that Europe slowly built in the past 100 years. Said legislation practically does not exist in Poland, because after the fall of communism there, in 1989, the unions never got enough power to fight for them, the way, say, Portuguese unions did. You can thank union leader Lech Walesa, who secretly sold Poland to the IMF, for that, betraying his political promises. Low ages, temp contracts, generalizes child labor, inadequate implementation of health and safety policies at work, unremunerated overtime, one day off a week instead of the customary two, forced to work more than the typical 40 weekly hours, no paid vacations are, I understand from what I've read, the general panorama in Poland. That's the role model that all of Europe will soon emulate. Poland is the, god help us, the Europe of the future. It's hard for a country to have an economic crisis when it's reached rock bottom already.

Incidentally, as for perfect revolutions, I'd say Portugal's 1974 Carnation Revolution is as perfect as they get: almost no dead, save a few people protesting in front of the secret police HQ gunned down from a window, and a smooth transition from the military junta to elections in one year - the tanks even respected traffic lights; you can't get more orderly than that in a military coup. In ten years it had reached the levels of development needed to join the EU; at one point it was even better off than Spain. My parents still remember a time when Spaniards came to Portugal in search of work (hm, much like the Poles do in France and the UK, prompting the government to open its borders to cheaper Bulgarian and Bielorussian workers. See how it all works fine?) because their country was dirt poor. What went wrong is simple. Casino capitalism and a political class of self-serving parasites went wrong. Also, recent euro-studies prove the Portuguese actually work on average more hours than the German, and also have less holidays. No, it's not laziness, it's not the workers. It's just bad management. Ultimately it's the people's fault for not policing their politicians.

[Amoxcalli]

Also, recent euro-studies prove the Portuguese actually work on average more hours than the German, and also have less holidays. No, it's not laziness, it's not the workers. It's just bad management. Ultimately it's the people's fault for not policing their politicians.

Fun fact: if laziness is defined by the amount of hours worked, the Dutch and Swedes are the laziest people in Europe. The Greeks work the most hours on average.

[Heteronym]

Fun fact: if laziness is defined by the amount of hours worked, the Dutch and Swedes are the laziest people in Europe.

Well, everyone knows the Dutch are just a bunch of pot smokers

[Amoxcalli]

Well, everyone knows the Dutch are just a bunch of pot smokers

There's this saying with black pots and kettles.

[Eric]

Looking at the fact that Greece, Portugal and Spain (along with Argentina and Chile) have been fascist dictatorships now and again, and that half of Europe consisted of communist dictatorships up to as recently as 1991, gives us something to compare the Arab dictatorships with.

Europe, not least thanks to the EU, has now been turned into a zone where there are far fewer dictatorships (like Belarus). But what will happen to the Arab countries across the northern coast of Africa is still anyone's guess. The Egyptians are not making things easier by banning the very NGOs that are trying to help them. Libya is maybe getting quietly better. As for Syria, just round the corner... And Iran, next door... And Saudi, which the West sucks up to because it is "better the devil you know" source of oil, compared with the People's Republic of Ahmedi-Nejad (though even the ayatollahs seem to be pretty fed up with him now).

[Eric]

In Syria, they haven't got as far as a revolution yet. But NATO and the West are keeping out, otherwise they would get the blame for mistakes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-humanity.html

I can't see many postmodernist novels or books of Dadaist poetry coming out of Syria in the near future. A climate of stability is a great help to writers.

[Eric]

So, where's this Arab Spring got to?

[Heteronym]

Dada was born during World War I; surely stability isn't indispensable.