Quote Originally Posted by pinkunicorn View Post
I'd limit that to candidates between 55-75 years old, even. Over the last 25 years, that's where almost all the winners have been. Looking at the last 50 years, the academy has been awarding people in the 50-55 and 75-80 ranges reasonably frequently as well, but not in the more recent years. So this can be used as a first sieve to gauge who would be most likely (or conversely, when someone would be most likely).
Uh..... There's been two 80+ year old winners this decade alone. It happens plenty frequently for the purposes of speculation. As noted by the Nobel's own site, the average age of a winner is 65.

Tomas Transtromer in 2011: 81 years old

Alice Munro in 2013: 82 years old.

Those are "recent years."

Orhan Pamuk was 54 when he won in 2006.

I'll be sticking with my age range. I'm taking about the actual ages someone is likely going to win. I excluded 40s because the last was Brodsky and given the current Swedish Acadmey make up and its choices someone in their 40s seems very unlikely (I can't name anyone in that age group who could be considered a serious contender right now). There are lots of names that come up in betting odds every year who are 75+ years old and plenty in their 80s as well.