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Thread: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

  1. #761
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel del Real View Post
    It amazes me more that Juan Goytisolo hasn't yet won the Cervantes. Hope this years is finally his year, as it is very obvious a Spaniard will win this year. They have an unwritten rule that awards the prize alternating each year a Spaniard and a Latin American writer.
    Javier Marías could be a very good choice; like Perez-Reverte or Vila-Matas. So, is not that obvious than Goytisolo will be awarded

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Everything I have read by Perez-Reverte (in English, perhaps three books) have been simply light-weight murder mysteries without any further redeeming features. What about him suggests the Nobel? I don't see it at all.

    (Not picking a fight - I am genuinely curious. I could muddle through something of his in Spanish if it was worth the effort, but it doesn't seem like it would be based on what I've read in English. Vila-Matas or Marias, on the other hand - oh yes.)
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    P.S. Please disregard this poor attempt at FUD. See maidenhair's excellent refutation below, instead.

    It seems that Unibet stopped taking bets on the Nobel for Literature earlier this week. On the other hand, Murakami is now at 3 to 2 odds at Ladbrokes, which is, depending where you're placing your bet from, ridiculous. I mean, many countries have 'sin' taxes on gambling profits, and European nations have also very high income taxes, so you may see about half of your 50% profit margin lost to taxation. Think about it, would you bet any money when all you could win (after taxes) was 0.25 for every 1.00 you bet? Well you may, but only if you knew for certain that you'd win.
    My point? It seems to me that the Murakami/Nadas pair are a leak/cover-up combo. So, if any of those two (admittedly excellent) writers wins the Nobel this year, we could guess that there was a leak. We could also think that there was an attempt to muddle the waters with bets on a different writer (the cover-up). In any case we'll know tomorrow.
    Last edited by Cleanthess; 10-Oct-2012 at 16:48. Reason: To take my foot out of my mouth.
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    I am not a gambling expert, but does 3/2 not actually mean that if you invest 2 you will get 3 plus your original bet of 2, so overall a profit of 3, no?

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by maidenhair View Post
    I am not a gambling expert, but does 3/2 not actually mean that if you invest 2 you will get 3 plus your original bet of 2, so overall a profit of 3, no?
    As the great Gilda Radner used to say: 'Never Mind'.
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    We discuss the speculation of gamblers, and on that info we're guessing that because a lot of people are betting on Nadas, he is the chosen one this year. But, keeping in mind just the hungarian literature, there is also György Konrád or Péter Esterházy. I think the first couldn't leave aside. He is a very good writer

  7. #767

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Sevastefo View Post
    We discuss the speculation of gamblers, and on that info we're guessing that because a lot of people are betting on Nadas, he is the chosen one this year. But, keeping in mind just the hungarian literature, there is also György Konrád or Péter Esterházy. I think the first couldn't leave aside. He is a very good writer
    And Krasznahorkai, and in the future Attila Bartis and Laszlo Darvasi.....

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    The closer we get the more I feel that a woman will receive the award this year, especially in light of the fact that there has been a lot of lobbying as of late (as in the last week) for a woman laurate (and we should keep in mind that only twelve women have won the award overall, and the past two winners were both males). And it is not the case that there aren't any serious Nobel worthy female nominees; that the academy has no choice but to give it to a male because the female contingent is a bunch of slouches. I really think Munro could get the award this year if the Academy does take the gender disparity into account (although they claim that the award is neutral). I did read somewhere that Munro has a number of fans on the Swedish Academy. I guess it is question of how many exactly and how vocal can they be.

    PS Yes, I am a Munro fan =)
    Last edited by Hrabal78; 10-Oct-2012 at 17:31.

  9. #769

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Hrabal78 View Post
    The closer we get the more I feel that a woman will receive the award this year.
    It is more than possible. Lessing won 3 years after Jelinek and Muller just 2 after Lessing but the gap between Szymborska and Jelinek was longer so you never know.
    But if they chose woman this year than Munro isn't their only possibility. The hottest names are Munro, Atwood and Djebar (and Oates, despite the fact that she is lower on Ladbrokes) but Jelinek and Lessing weren't "the hottest names" and still won. So who knows? Maybe Ugresic whose name was mentioned earlier?

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Davus View Post
    But if they chose woman this year than Munro isn't their only possibility. The hottest names are Munro, Atwood and Djebar (and Oates, despite the fact that she is lower on Ladbrokes) but Jelinek and Lessing weren't "the hottest names" and still won. So who knows? Maybe Ugresic whose name was mentioned earlier?
    I just have a feeling that if they go with a woman they give it to Munro, in part because of her age (clock is running out for her to receive the honor) and in part because of her stature as a writer. She truly is a giant in the short story form. Her and Trevor stand alone at the top and no other living writer comes close in terms of the quantity/quality the two have produced. She has been receiving praise/admiration from critics and other renowned authors for decades and, as of late, the cheering has been intensifying, especially around Nobel time. I think a lot of people are realizing that with Munro it is becoming now or never, which is maybe why there is such a push to have her recognized. Atwood is almost 10 years younger; Djebar is 6 years younger, Ugresic is in her early 60s; Olga Tokarczuk in her 50s. Then again, Pamuk and Muller were both quite young and received the prize over other worthy more elderly candidates.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Sevastefo View Post
    Javier Marías could be a very good choice; like Perez-Reverte or Vila-Matas. So, is not that obvious than Goytisolo will be awarded
    Well, Juan Goytisolo is old now (81) and for this and many other reasons he has the strongest corpus of works from all of them by far. Probably something that hasn't helped him is his anti-establishment points of view and the criticism against Spain in many aspects he has always manifested. Other than that I can see no reason why he hasn't obtain the prize.

    Vila-Matas (64) and Marías (61) are excellent writers as well, but they still have plenty of time to receive this award.

    About Pérez-Reverte, here's what I think of him

    Quote Originally Posted by Damian Kelleher View Post
    Everything I have read by Perez-Reverte (in English, perhaps three books) have been simply light-weight murder mysteries without any further redeeming features. What about him suggests the Nobel? I don't see it at all.

    (Not picking a fight - I am genuinely curious. I could muddle through something of his in Spanish if it was worth the effort, but it doesn't seem like it would be based on what I've read in English. Vila-Matas or Marias, on the other hand - oh yes.)

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Latest take by Orthofer one day before the announcement

    http://www.complete-review.com/saloon/#ea5

    Nothing really new to say.

  13. #773

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel del Real View Post
    Nothing really new to say.
    Exactly. It's even strange but since yesterday only Murakami slightly improved his bets. So maybe Nadas isn't a leak after all.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel del Real View Post
    Latest take by Orthofer one day before the announcement

    http://www.complete-review.com/saloon/#ea5

    Nothing really new to say.
    "Amos Oz (Ladbrokes odds: 16/1) - best safe, uncontroversial choice."

    Really?

    As I noted earlier, yes, Oz is left of the center but he still is a self-avowed zionist (to the extent that he believes in a Jewish state for Jewish people in what is now Israel...don't see a problem with that, although a lot of people do), albeit left leaning, and he has taken "controversial" stances in the past on certain prickly issues, i.e. the separation fence, the Lebanon War, etc. I mean, awarding the Nobel to Oz would not be as controversial as awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Netan-yahoooooo or his goober sidekick Lieberman, but it would, nonetheless, be controversial because Oz is a proud Israeli which does rub a lot of people in the Middle East the wrong way, just saying.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Hrabal78 View Post
    I just have a feeling that if they go with a woman they give it to Munro, in part because of her age (clock is running out for her to receive the honor) and in part because of her stature as a writer. She truly is a giant in the short story form. Her and Trevor stand alone at the top and no other living writer comes close in terms of the quantity/quality the two have produced. She has been receiving praise/admiration from critics and other renowned authors for decades and, as of late, the cheering has been intensifying, especially around Nobel time. I think a lot of people are realizing that with Munro it is becoming now or never, which is maybe why there is such a push to have her recognized. Atwood is almost 10 years younger; Djebar is 6 years younger, Ugresic is in her early 60s; Olga Tokarczuk in her 50s. Then again, Pamuk and Muller were both quite young and received the prize over other worthy more elderly candidates.
    Munro is a fine writer, but to my recollection (I may be wrong - probably am!) it is only this year and maybe last year that the shouts for her to receive the Nobel have begun to sound. In my opinion, Trevor has the edge on her. I just prefer his stories (a personal choice; I very much enjoy reading Munro too but maybe I can relate more to his stories) but also he is highly regarded as a novelist (he has been shortlisted several times for the Booker Prize). Will the fact that she is pretty much exclusively a short story writer count against her, I wonder?
    If she does win I for one won't be unhappy with the choice, but I hope the decision doesn't tip in her favour simply because she's a woman. And if they do select a woman writing in English, I'll be surprised if it isn't Atwood.
    Also, almost all the writers on the Ladbrokes list have been receiving praise/admiration from critics and other writers for decades! That's probably why we're talking about them

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Hrabal78 View Post
    "Amos Oz (Ladbrokes odds: 16/1) - best safe, uncontroversial choice."

    Really?

    As I noted earlier, yes, Oz is left of the center but he still is a self-avowed zionist (to the extent that he believes in a Jewish state for Jewish people in what is now Israel...don't see a problem with that, although a lot of people do), albeit left leaning, and he has taken "controversial" stances in the past on certain prickly issues, i.e. the separation fence, the Lebanon War, etc. I mean, awarding the Nobel to Oz would not be as controversial as awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Netan-yahoooooo or his goober sidekick Lieberman, but it would, nonetheless, be controversial because Oz is a proud Israeli which does rub a lot of people in the Middle East the wrong way, just saying.
    I have to agree with you and against Orthofer in this one. Any Israeli writer will be a controversial choice, no matter the tendencies in which he prevails. Now the questions, who would be less controversial? Oz, Yehoshua, Grossman, Appelfeld? Have no idea of the opinions of all of them about the conflict in Middle East.

    Quote Originally Posted by Davus View Post
    Exactly. It's even strange but since yesterday only Murakami slightly improved his bets. So maybe Nadas isn't a leak after all.
    I know, I expected a lot of movements 24 hours prior to the big day, but nothing at all. This comes to summarize a very slow year for betting on the Nobel. Probably not enough earnings happened last year.

  17. #777

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Hrabal78 View Post
    "Amos Oz (Ladbrokes odds: 16/1) - best safe, uncontroversial choice."
    Well, I don't know what Orthofer had in mind but "uncontroversial" might mean here that all people agree that he's a great writer. And there won't be Jelinek-rage after his choice.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel del Real View Post
    Any Israeli writer will be a controversial choice, no matter the tendencies in which he prevails. Now the questions, who would be less controversial? Oz, Yehoshua, Grossman, Appelfeld?
    Applefeld is Israeli but writes little about life there. Most of his work focuses on Jewish life in Europe before, during and after World War II. He is relatively apolitical or, at least, does not really voice his opinion on political issues/the conflict one way or the other.

    I think Grossman is the most left-leaning of the trio but, as you said, I do not really see an Israeli winning the prize given the political climate in the region. When Agnon won in '66 (year before the infamous '67 conflict) the political climate was not as charged. As much as I would like to see Oz win, I do not see it happening.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Davus View Post
    Well, I don't know what Orthofer had in mind but "uncontroversial" might mean here that all people agree that he's a great writer. And there won't be Jelinek-rage after his choice.
    In that case I also agree, his quality as a writer is indisputable

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2012 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Davus View Post
    Well, I don't know what Orthofer had in mind but "uncontroversial" might mean here that all people agree that he's a great writer. And there won't be Jelinek-rage after his choice.
    Maybe no Jelinek-rage from us book nerds 8-) but ayatollah assahola will throw a hissy fit and the illiterate Taliban-brainwashed masses in Pakistan willl beat up some Christians/burn down some churches (http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/an...akistan-271177) and in Bangladesh they'll burn down some Buddhist temples (even though it really won't have anything to do with Islam, other than the fact that Oz is Israeli. However, in their feeble minds (you are not dealing with the brightest bulbs in the batch), it translates roughly as....Oz=Israeli...we do not like Israel...Israel=anti-Islam...therefore, Oz is anti-Islam, therefore....RIOT!!!). That is perhaps why the Academy has resisted giving the award to Oz, not because it would offend bookworms but because it could set of some unwanted unrest. I think one of the main reason why Rushdie has not gotten the prize is because of the potential unrest it would cause in the Middle East. When it comes to controversy, the Academy considers both literary controversy and political controversy (in case of latter, Rushdie and Capek are prime examples).
    Last edited by Hrabal78; 10-Oct-2012 at 20:36.

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