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Thread: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

  1. #61

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Thanks, guys.

  2. #62

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Does Ladbrokes really not have a page up for this year, or am I simply unskilled at searching?

  3. #63

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Ater, Lividus, Ruber, & V View Post
    Does Ladbrokes really not have a page up for this year, or am I simply unskilled at searching?
    I can't find it either, at least.

    There is a page at Nicerodds, though. It contains the following:

    Haruki Murakami, 6.00
    Adunis, 9.00
    Joyce Carol Oates, 11.00
    Ngugi Wa Thiong'o, 11.00
    Philip Roth, 13.00
    Ismail Kadaré, 15.00
    Jon Fosse, 18.00
    Amos Oz, 21.00
    Péter Nádas, 21.00
    Adam Zagajewski, 26.00
    Doris Kareva, 26.00
    John Banville, 26.00
    Kjell Askildsen, 26.00
    Cees Nooteboom, 31.00
    Gerald Murnane, 31.00
    Jaan Kaplinski, 31.00
    Ko Un, 31.00
    László Krasznahorkai, 31.00
    Leonard Nolens, 31.00
    Olga Tokarczuk, 31.00
    Peter Handke, 31.00
    Jussi Adler-Olsen, 34.00
    Sirkka Turkka, 41.00
    Tua Forsström, 41.00
    Mircea Cartarescu, 51.00
    There's a number of names here that I know nothing of, as well as a number of usual suspects that are missing.

  4. #64

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    http://urfu.ru/en/news/news/14878/

    Apparently Péter Nádas has been nominated by a Russian university which nominated Alexievich last year.

  5. #65
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    I finished reading a book from Ngugi Wa Thiong´o that, sadly, doesn´t left me too hopeful he wil win the prize. The book is Matigari, one or his less-known works. Very few translations or editions. Originally written in Gikuyu.

    The book is written, as explained by the author, on the African oral tradition - simple language, a lot of repetitions, many metaphors and standard characters. A bit like The Wizard of the Crow, but simpler. Matigari ("Patriot" in Gikuyu, representing every man who fought for independence and survived) is an independence fighter that decides, after the independence, throw away his weapons and return to his "house". Then he finds that his "house" (a metaphor for the whole country) is owned by John Boy Jr., the son of John Boy (that represents every black man who allied with the imperialists). By Boy´s side is the son of Settler Williams, killed previously by Matigari, representing here, of course, every white settler. On his way he goes looking for "truth and justice", and finds a standard boy and a standard woman. Almost everything he does has some similarities with Christ, the book has a heavy religious overtone (but against the church). Even the woman was a whore who is saved... I must mention there´s a moment when he links Marx and Jesus (bearded men who the oppresors treat as madmen) that is a bit stupid.

    No complaining about those obvious things, the story is, on purpose, written to be read by anyone, around a campfire, etc. It´s not complex at all, very accessible. No problem yet, because Ngugi had already written some great books, complex ones. He can experiment, he can try to reach the people.

    The problem I see is: the book is not only a very obvious apology for Marxism - and on the most basic level, everything is very simple, black and white - but the message Ngugi gives is not good. It´s written on the book: "Justice from the oppressed springs from the organised armed power of the people", that´s the message. Matigari tries to lay down his weapons, but in the end he discovers he can´t win peacefully - so, arise, people, and (litterally) burn down the opressors´ houses.

    Of course I understand African countries suffered a lot, and to each own his own opinions, but inciting armed violence is not something that goes well with everyone, and I can´t see that opinion winning a Nobel prize any time soon. Or later.

    I will end this comparing what Ngugi tries here with the works of two Nobel usually considered "lesser Nobels".

    Oral literature - what Ngugi tries here and also a bit on The Wizard of the Crow, but if we take Dario Fo, Ngugi is way, way below. He dedicates the book for people who study African orature, but it´s just a simple story, regardless of place - I can´t see a true African tradition coming from that. Mia Couto, eg, does that in a way that is superior by miles.

    The suffering of the people - it´s ok being on the weaker side, but let´s take Le Clèzio. Even when the Frenchman is naive (Ourania, Poisson d´Or) he still writes very well. His French is refined - Ngugi, in Matigari, is simple as can be (ok, it´s a translation, but even in Wizard it´s that way). Le Clèzio still gives us stories that, even naive, are not simple, black and white. The complexity of his tales are way above this book from Ngugi (or Wizard). And if we think of dictatorships, well, many Nobel winners (and non-winners) wrote a lot better about it.

    So, if Ngugi never wins the prize, I won´t be surprised at all. It´s not just a bad book, it´s a very bad ideal.

  6. #66
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    The black and white aspect has turned me off of Ngugi. I remember reading a play of his for a class, The Trial of Dedan Kamathi, that ended with a similar call to arms and featured characters with less depth than the star of a Twilight knock off. It's not as present in some of his bigger works, like Wizard of the Crow or The River Between, but even there he rubs me the wrong way.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by redheadshadz View Post
    I remember reading a play of his for a class, The Trial of Dedan Kamathi, that ended with a similar call to arms...
    Oh, I see. So I believe he won´t win, if Matigari is not the exception. A man that defends Marxism through brute force - not reason, just blind passion - and that incites war is no good. Little spoiler ahead (please skip to the next paragraph if you don´t want to read it): after people burning the houses and plantations of the rich people, Matigari the book ends with a child, little boy, getting the machine gun (an AK-47) of the character Matigari and going to fight. This is not a very nice image (or correct).

    And Ngugi also used to say in interviews etc. that he was the man who deserved the Nobel the most, another thing the Academy hates. Now he backed of from that.

    And to give the famous "three strikes, out", in every bloody book he writes - be it good or bad - he must by any means praise at some moment circumcions - both male and female. From Matigari: "Before this moment, they were mere boys, but by the time they unclenched their fists, they were men." He has some serious problems with that. I can´t stop thinking about Nawal El Saadawi, that does the opposite...

    You see, I´m reading Kadare now. Even when he writes a bad book - even in his worst moments - he still writes well and his heart is in the right place. This simple word - ideal - is very important to the Nobel, because it´s on Nobel´s last will. Armed violence and Nobel don´t mix at all. The last thing the Academy wants to see is newspapers around the world saying: "Nobel goes to African writer that dismiss African writers who write in English and praises female circumcision and armed combat"...

    But, I must say, I´ll keep reading Ngugi, he wrote some great books, it´s really a pity he decided to take this route.
    Last edited by Vazquez; 22-Aug-2016 at 03:14.

  8. #68

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Agreed, even when Clézio writes a soggy, laughably-idealistic story (how many of his poor orphans with no education go on to become doctors, just by sitting in a couple of classes, or filling out a form, or getting someone to write a recommendation?!) - his diction is very refined, straight from Maupassant or Laclos and is a pleasure to experience.

    Ngugi reminds me of Soyinka. Just read Death and the King's Horseman and relish in the puerile dichotomies he dispenses as sagacious gifts.

  9. #69

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Here are some of the hints that run through my mind about this years laureate:

    1. Male or female: Male(DUH?). There has not been a back to back win for females in the history of the prize as yet.

    2. Obscurity: this year's pick i think would be an obscure or an under appreciated or never been on Ladbrokes list until the day of declaring the prize.

    3. English writer: no laureate in English since Alice Munro, so I would bet on one; the problem is that any names worthy of it?( I doubt they will give it Americans).

    4. Poetry: Well if you can name a poet who is translated to more than 60 live languages, then you have got your guy( that was one of the justifications they handed it over to Transtromer as per Enguld)

    5. Non Fiction: I wopuld discard it since Svetlana won for writing Polyphonic prose.

    6. Fiction or Plays: the bet is on these two categories, with fiction having the upper hand. All is possible though.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Ater, Lividus, Ruber, & V View Post
    From wiki:

    Mommsen: "the greatest living master of the art of historical writing, with special reference to his monumental work, A History of Rome"

    Carl Spitteler: "in special appreciation of his epic, Olympian Spring”

    Knut Hamsun: “for his monumental work, Growth of the Soil”

    Władysław Reymont: “for his great national epic, The Peasants”

    Thomas Mann: "principally for his great novel, Buddenbrooks, which has won steadily increased recognition as one of the classic works of contemporary literature"

    John Galsworthy: "for his distinguished art of narration, which takes its highest form in The Forsyte Saga"

    Roger Martin du Gard: "for the artistic power and truth with which he has depicted human conflict as well as some fundamental aspects of contemporary life in his novel cycle Les Thibault”

    Ernest Hemingway: "for his mastery of the art of narrative, most recently demonstrated in The Old Man and the Sea, and for the influence that he has exerted on contemporary style"

    Please find the complete list here :

    https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_pri...ure/index.html
    Deus ex machina

  11. #71

    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    Here are some of the hints that run through my mind about this years laureate:

    1. Male or female: Male(DUH?). There has not been a back to back win for females in the history of the prize as yet.
    There indeed hasn't but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens soon. From the start the statistics look like this with female laureates and number of males between them:

    9 - Lagerlöf - 15 - Deledda - 1 - Undset - 8 - Buck - 2 - Mistral - 20 - Sachs - 25 - Gordimer - 1 - Morrison - 2 - Szymborska - 7 - Jelinek - 2 - Lessing - 1 - Müller - 3 - Munro - 1 - Aleksijevitj

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    2. Obscurity: this year's pick i think would be an obscure or an under appreciated or never been on Ladbrokes list until the day of declaring the prize.

    3. English writer: no laureate in English since Alice Munro, so I would bet on one; the problem is that any names worthy of it?( I doubt they will give it Americans).
    English is just one language among hundreds, and probably well overrepresented already.

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    4. Poetry: Well if you can name a poet who is translated to more than 60 live languages, then you have got your guy( that was one of the justifications they handed it over to Transtromer as per Enguld)

    5. Non Fiction: I wopuld discard it since Svetlana won for writing Polyphonic prose.

    6. Fiction or Plays: the bet is on these two categories, with fiction having the upper hand. All is possible though.
    I'd be surprised (not wildly, but still) if it isn't fiction.
    Last edited by pinkunicorn; 25-Aug-2016 at 14:33.

  12. #72
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    OK. Let's try:

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    1. Male or female: Male(DUH?). There has not been a back to back win for females in the history of the prize as yet.
    Male.
    I absolutely don’t thing that the Swedish Academy is ready to make a revolution, giving twice in a row the Nobel to a female author.


    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    2. Obscurity: this year's pick i think would be an obscure or an under appreciated
    Laszlo KRASNAHORKAI? Cesar ARIA? Claudio MAGRIS? Jon FOSSE? Mircea CARTARESCU?...

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    or never been on Ladbrokes list until the day of declaring the prize.
    Is that possible to find?

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    3. English writer: no laureate in English since Alice Munro, so I would bet on one; the problem is that any names worthy of it?( I doubt they will give it Americans).
    The perfect way for Salman RUSHDIE? And why not an African writer? Ben OKRI? Nuruddin FARAH?

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    4. Poetry: Well if you can name a poet who is translated to more than 60 live languages, then you have got your guy( that was one of the justifications they handed it over to Transtromer as per Enguld)
    ADONIS? Ko UN?

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    5. Non Fiction: I would discard it since Svetlana won for writing Polyphonic prose.
    Absolutely true here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    6. Fiction or Plays: the bet is on these two categories, with fiction having the upper hand. All is possible though.
    Fiction. So Kazuo ISHIGURO?
    Deus ex machina

  13. #73
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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Taleb View Post
    2. Obscurity: this year's pick i think would be an obscure or an under appreciated or never been on Ladbrokes list until the day of declaring the prize.
    I think it will be the opposite - a very famous writer. The last very famous author winning - and by very famous I mean: works always in print around the world, translations in dozen of languages by big publishers - was Llosa (2010). Maybe Munro (2013) can be counted as "very famous" too. Before that, I believe it was Pamuk (2006). Lessing was quite forgotten when she won.

    Anyway, if it is someone obscure... I keep track of Labrokes and other betting agencies since 2004, and the only times a winner was not in any betting list - not even one, as far as I know - was Lessing (2007) and Pinter (2005). Quite some time ago.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    You're right Vazquez, it's important to define what "obscure" really means. Is it for people who is an avid reader or to the masses who are not as well informed as someone who dedicates time to literature. I agree MVLL could be considered a very famous writer to receive a Nobel and it could be the case for this year in Rushdie, Kundera or Roth are awarded.

    Svetlana was not a surprised to any of us at the forum, but it was a low profile writer, obscure let's say. Modiano was well under radar, being only widely distributed in French. That would make two low profile Nobels in a row. Usually, Svenska Akademien is reluctant to give the Nobel to very famous writers, and I don't see a perennial candidate obtaining it this year. I think it will be something similar to the last two years, kinda expected in the literary circles, but hardly recognizable for the common citizen.

  15. #75

    United Arab Emirates Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by pinkunicorn View Post

    English is just one language among hundreds, and probably well overrepresented already.
    I agree that English is represented generously, but as per, well,the last 4-5 decades there have been at least two writers who write in English that were offered the prize. The impressive part might be though to give the prizeto an American; who would steal the hearts of the Academy members after so long?

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Vazquez View Post
    I think it will be the opposite - a very famous writer. The last very famous author winning - and by very famous I mean: works always in print around the world, translations in dozen of languages by big publishers - was Llosa (2010).
    In this case I just see the name of Mr. Haruki MURAKAMI!
    Outsiders could be: Philip ROTH, Kazuo ISHIGURO, Salman RUSHDIE, Cormac McCARTHY, Don DeLILLO…
    Deus ex machina

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel del Real View Post
    You're right Vazquez, it's important to define what "obscure" really means.
    For me "obscure" means a widely known and famous writer in his country, but... Very little translated and known worldwide. A perfect example is here Mrs. Herta Müller! ...
    Deus ex machina

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel del Real View Post
    Svetlana was not a surprised to any of us at the forum, but it was a low profile writer, obscure let's say. Modiano was well under radar, being only widely distributed in French. That would make two low profile Nobels in a row. Usually, Svenska Akademien is reluctant to give the Nobel to very famous writers, and I don't see a perennial candidate obtaining it this year. I think it will be something similar to the last two years, kinda expected in the literary circles, but hardly recognizable for the common citizen.
    In this case the names of : Norman MANEA, Laszlo KRASZNAHORKAI, Cesar AIRA, Claudio MAGRIS, Peter NADAS, Jon FOSSE, Mircea CARTARESCU... Must be taken in consideration.
    Deus ex machina

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by Septularisen View Post
    In this case I just see the name of Mr. Haruki MURAKAMI!
    Outsiders could be: Philip ROTH, Kazuo ISHIGURO, Salman RUSHDIE, Cormac McCARTHY, Don DeLILLO…
    If they come back to the US, I have a feeling it'll be someone lesser known.

    Edit: And if it is someone very famous, I think it might be someone from a smaller country. No examples yet because I have not had my morning coffee -_-
    Last edited by redheadshadz; 26-Aug-2016 at 14:21.

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    Default Re: Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation

    Quote Originally Posted by redheadshadz View Post
    And if it is someone very famous, I think it might be someone from a smaller country. No examples yet because I have not had my morning coffee -_-
    Maybe Kadare? I think he is very famous worldwide. Well, at least he is in Brazil.

    Guys, I have three names I wonder if any one of you know something about. Two I have never read, and one, just a single book. Do you think they have any chance?

    Nuruddin Farah - I have read Maps and I was not impressed, but maybe he has better books.

    Ayi Kewi Armah - This is a name I usually get when researching about African literature, but he seems to be quite obscure.

    Amos Oz - The guy has received a billion awards...
    Last edited by Vazquez; 26-Aug-2016 at 17:55.

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