Regarding speculation:
A lot of people have talked about their own "gut feeling". Personally, I'm not feeling it for Ernaux. She was widely acknowledged as a contender only quite late into her career, and I find it a bit hard to believe that she has leapfrogged so many perennial candidates (even though most of us agree that those candidates would have won the Nobel by now if that was meant to happen). This year may be Ernaux's last chance.
Given how gut feelings have gone in the past, that probably means she will win now
But I do think she has a solid chance. Her work doesn't personally excite me--her style of spare autofiction leaves me a bit cold, and with some of her books I can't help but feel like Handke did it but better with A Sorrow Beyond Dreams--but at the same time I recognize that she's great at what she does and seems relatively uncontroversial. I can very easily see a consensus forming around her, especially if there are more divisive candidates.
I also feel that Jon Fosse may well be the only Euro white male with any chance of winning the prize over the next 4-5 years.
Still think Mia Couto is a very strong, maybe a leading contender, this year and from now on.
I agree with you on Fosse, I think he’ll win soon. Maybe this year now that all the Septology volumes are out, but if not, definitely in the coming ones. My gut's actually now pointing to him (though that might be the result of wishful thinking). But I don't think he's the only white guy from Europe who has a chance. Knowing the SA, I doubt it.
For Couto, I've only read one novel, so I won't say much, but what do you think about some of the controversies or critiques that came up earlier in this thread?
Edit: Oh no the forum’s acting a little funny, I hope it doesn’t go down again like a few years ago