Quite a few things to remark since the last time I posted.
1) Odds-makers on ladbrokes are definitely keeping tabs on the forum (as other members have already echoed)
2) The names of Ulitskaya and Kincaid are fascinating, however, since neither of them have been discussed substantially as potential candidates here or elsewhere--at least not this year. This hints that both of them--while not front-runners--are at least nominated and the nominators have let on. Ulitskaya strikes as more of a front runner, however, and may even be the surprise winner this year and debunk the Nobel Library theory thus. My love for the Nobel Library and the wondefrul speculation that it has birthed aside, I am here for Ulitskaya's win. On another note, Jamaica Kincaid and Marye Conde, or Jamaica Kincaid and Edwidge Danticat (her Neustadt win certainly gave her a little momentum for consideration) will be a great pick for a joint award, if any is happening this year. Though with the passage of time I am less convinced about the Nobel Prize twitter being a trivia or hint hunt, leading to a joint award.
3) Which brings me to the last thing I have to say about Nobel social media. The only thing that can now convince me that the twitter/instagram are a channel for guidance toward the eventual winner is if a person who has already won a Nobel in one science category goes on to win it in another. The Nobel social media has been obsessively posting about the few people who have won the Nobel Prize twice, in multiple categories. If in the next two days, with the announcement of the Chemistry and Physics prize, the eventual winner is a previous recipient in a different category, it is safe to conclude that the Nobel Prize social media is--in some degree--in on the speculations. It can also be true if a previous science laureate wins the peace prize this year. It has happened in the past, but this year, with so many things happening socio-politically, it seems less likely that a scientist will triumph in the peace category, and the peace prize will be announced after literature anyway. Furthermore, though I am less and less convinced about the Nobel Prize social media being some kind of a trivia, an argument can be made however regarding the Nobel foundation's greater involvement in and supervision of the Swedish Academy's proceedings. With the 2018 scandal, there has been a greater push for transparency. The Nobel Foundation at some point even threatened to withdraw the assignment of awarding the Nobel Prize in literature from the Swedish Academy. This year, too, the foundation is trying to convince the Academy to keep on seeking help from external members, despite the term of current external expert is about to end now. I will not be surprised if the Nobel Academy is, this year more than others, more involved with the Swedish Academy, or is supervising them in someway.
4) Ultimately, my top picks/predictions for this year's prize, in a particular order (likely to least likely): Anne Carson, Can Xue, Lyudmila Ulitskaya, Annie Ernaux, Ngugi Wa Thiong'o.
Cheers
