Nobel Prize in Literature 2023 Speculation

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Bartleby

Moderator
It's that time of year again, when we share some thoughts on writers who may win this year's Nobel Prize in Literature, and along the way we get to talk about new writers to read.

Up to 2021 we resorted to the Nobel Library to have an idea of the authors the Swedish Academy was probably reading during their summer break, when they assess and compare the worth of the shortlisted writers (by now they must have already chosen the 5-6 names competing for the 2023 prize). But since last year they've seemed to have limited access to the Library and the books checked out, not showing if a book by a given writer has been taken... The thing is, in past years the winners had several books checked out (several volumes by Tokarczuk and Handke, and before she won, Ernaux, for instance). The anomaly was Gurnah in 2021 (even tho some member claimed after he was announced as the winner that a few of his books had been borrowed). However, if we take a look at the books taken in that year, many African writers are heavily represented, suggesting maybe they were weighing them against Gurnah? In any case here are some lists of books borrowed from previous years, which perhaps might indicate to a possible near future winner:

The library was the most accurate predictor of where the prize was going and how the Academy was assessing and grouping authors. With it gone, much of the speculation-fun has gone away.

Still, if we look at the results from two years ago:

October 2020:
Charles Simic - 16
Louise Gluck - 13
Friederike Mayrocker - 12
Annie Ernaux - 11
Jon Fosse - 9
Michel Houellebecq - 9
Botho Strauß - 9
---

Ann Carson - 7
Can Xue - 7
Homero Aridjis - 6
Yu Hua - 6
Peter Nadas - 6
Marie Norin - 6
Ingela Strandberg - 6
Xi Xi - 6
David Grossman - 4
Yan Lianke - 3
Javier Marias - 2
Hilary Mantel - 1
Marilynne Robinson - 1

And August 2021:
  1. Homero Aridjis (Mexican Poet) - 6 Books
  2. Can Xue (Chinese Novelist) - 6 Books
  3. Anne Carson (Canadian Poet) - 4 Books
  4. Mia Couto (Mozambican Novelist) - 11 Books
  5. Helene Cixous (French Philosopher) - 3 Books
  6. Inger Edelfeldt (Swedish Children’s Author) - 3 Books
  7. Annie Ernaux (French Novelist) - 18 Books
  8. Jon Fosse (Norwegian Novelist/Dramatist) - 11 Books
  9. David Grossman (Israeli Novelist) - 3 Books
  10. Anna Hallberg (Swedish Poet) - 5 Books
  11. Ann Jäderlund (Swedish Poet) - 3 books
  12. Karl One Knausgard (Norwegian Writer) - 5 books
  13. Michel Houellebecq (French Novelist) - 8 books
  14. Peter Nadas (Hungarian Novelist) - 4 Books
  15. Malte Persson (Swedish Novelist) - 3 Books
  16. Jila Mossaed (Swedish Academy Member) - 3 Books
  17. Marilynne Robinson (American Author) - 3 books
  18. Steve Sem-Sandberg (Swedish Sci-Fi/Holocaust Author) - 7 books (maybe a Swede that could have a shot)
  19. Jenny Tunedal (Swedish poet) - 4 Books
  20. Dubravka Ugresic (Croatian Novelist) - 4 Books
  21. Lyudmila Ulitskaya (Russian Novelist) - 4 books
  22. Ivan Vladislavic (South African author) - 8 books
  23. Xi Xi (Chinese short story writer) - 6 books
  24. Yu Hua (Chinese novelist) - 6 books
  25. Zoe Wicomb (Scottish/South African author) - 6 books
  26. Yan Lianke (Chinese Novelist) - 3 books
  27. Charles Simic (American Poet) - 14 books - this looks like a fluke potentially, most of these books have a due date of February 2021

So maybe we could see a winner in poet/essayist/translator Anne Carson? Novelist and memoirist Peter Nadas? Experimental chinese writer Can Xue? Dramatist/novelist/poet Jon Fosse? Who knows... Anyway, who are your favourites and who do you think will win this year's Nobel?
 
Latin American is overdue a win but my impression is that there are no realistic candidates?

I don't really think we'll have a European or mainland North American winner again yet.

It's also unlikely they'll be a "popular" name like Ernaux.

I think we're talking Asia. One of the Chinese or South Korean candidates probably. Maybe Duong Thu Huong. Hamid Ismailov would be a nice choice. I'd also not be surprised if it was an Indian writer we don't mention at all between now and October, a la Gurnah.

I would love it to be Murnane's year, but a recent glut of English-language candidates may count against that.

A Maryse Conde win would be good to see.

Quite clearly, they DO have an agenda for looking all over the world, and should, so while anything can happen during the voting process, geographic whittling down on our part is as a reliable a method as any.
 

Leemo

Well-known member
Based on Ernaux's win last year, I agree with Bartelby that there's still value to be found in the Nobel library numbers of 2020/21. Thus I'm guessing the winner of the 2023 Nobel will be from either Norway or China. I'll guess one of these 5 writers:

Jon Fosse
Dag Solstad
Can Xue
Yu Hua
Xi Xi
 

Leseratte

Well-known member
It's that time of year again, when we share some thoughts on writers who may win this year's Nobel Prize in Literature, and along the way we get to talk about new writers to read.

Up to 2021 we resorted to the Nobel Library to have an idea of the authors the Swedish Academy was probably reading during their summer break, when they assess and compare the worth of the shortlisted writers (by now they must have already chosen the 5-6 names competing for the 2023 prize). But since last year they've seemed to have limited access to the Library and the books checked out, not showing if a book by a given writer has been taken... The thing is, in past years the winners had several books checked out (several volumes by Tokarczuk and Handke, and before she won, Ernaux, for instance). The anomaly was Gurnah in 2021 (even tho some member claimed after he was announced as the winner that a few of his books had been borrowed). However, if we take a look at the books taken in that year, many African writers are heavily represented, suggesting maybe they were weighing them against Gurnah? In any case here are some lists of books borrowed from previous years, which perhaps might indicate to a possible near future winner:



So maybe we could see a winner in poet/essayist/translator Anne Carson? Novelist and memoirist Peter Nadas? Experimental chinese writer Can Xue? Dramatist/novelist/poet Jon Fosse? Who knows... Anyway, who are your favourites and who do you think will win this year's Nobel?
Thanks for opening the Speculation Thread 2023, Bartleby. It comes as a surprise on a rainyj SP afternoon. Let's just hope that the winner will be fully deserving of the award.
 

Papageno

Well-known member
Let's be realistic, France is long overdue! #Vuillard2023

But joking aside, I am wondering if people think that a Francophone writer who is not from mainland France could actually win in spite of last year's prize having gone to Ernaux? (There have been cases, of course, with several English language laureates from different countries winning in consecutive years) Either someone from France d'outre-mer, like Maryse Condé of Guadeloupe, or someone from other partly Francophone countries, like eg. Amélie Nothomb of Belgium. Or do you think that is out of the question for this year?

Thank you, Bartleby, for opening up this thread! The best months of the year are now ahead of us ?
 

Leseratte

Well-known member
Let's be realistic, France is long overdue! #Vuillard2023

But joking aside, I am wondering if people think that a Francophone writer who is not from mainland France could actually win in spite of last year's prize having gone to Ernaux? (There have been cases, of course, with several English language laureates from different countries winning in consecutive years) Either someone from France d'outre-mer, like Maryse Condé of Guadeloupe, or someone from other partly Francophone countries, like eg. Amélie Nothomb of Belgium. Or do you think that is out of the question for this year?

Thank you, Bartleby, for opening up this thread! The best months of the year are now ahead of us ?
Mukasonga?
 

Leseratte

Well-known member
Latin American is overdue a win but my impression is that there are no realistic candidates?

I don't really think we'll have a European or mainland North American winner again yet.

It's also unlikely they'll be a "popular" name like Ernaux.

I think we're talking Asia. One of the Chinese or South Korean candidates probably. Maybe Duong Thu Huong. Hamid Ismailov would be a nice choice. I'd also not be surprised if it was an Indian writer we don't mention at all between now and October, a la Gurnah.

I would love it to be Murnane's year, but a recent glut of English-language candidates may count against that.

A Maryse Conde win would be good to see.

Quite clearly, they DO have an agenda for looking all over the world, and should, so while anything can happen during the voting process, geographic whittling down on our part is as a reliable a method as any.
I wonder if there is a Latin Americ candidate with enough universality to qualify for the Noble.
 

Morbid Swither

Well-known member
I think that Hamid Ismailov would be a satisfying choice. I think that authors in Russian, broadly, may have strong odds this year.

I also agree that authors from Central/South America are overdue for consideration.
 

Ben Jackson

Well-known member
Let us look at the key words in the citations for the last five Nobel Laureates, at least since after the scandal of 2018:

Olga Tokarczuk--- encyclopedic passion represents boundaries as form of life

Peter Handke--- linguistic ingenuity exploring periphery and specificity of human experience

Louise Gluck--- austere beauty makes individual existence universal

Abdulrazak Gurnah--- Fate of refugees in gulf between two cultures

Annie Ernaux--- collective restraint of personal memory

With these key words in these citations, the prize this year, I believe, will head towards either auto-fictional writer with linguistic bent or writer whose works either discuss effects of history or migration/emigration of individuals. So my ten candidates will be:

Jon Fosse
Enrique Vilas-Matas
Gerald Murnane (probably the last chance for him to get it IMHO)
Salim Barakat
Karl Ove Knausgaard

The first five are writers I believe are prime, the other five I will place as kind of dark horse, although they are deserving:

Laszlo Kraszhnarhokai
Yan Lianke
Mircea Cartarescu
Cesar Aira
Amin Malouf

Concerning Africa, my bet's on Vladislavic or Al-Koni.

Though the Nobel Library were useful in the past, when it was accessible to the public, I wouldn't be surprised if the winner is someone we didn't expect.
 

Leseratte

Well-known member
Horacio Castellanos Moya, Rodrigo Rey Rosa, Sergio Ramírez, Alfredo Bryce Echenique, Carmen Boullosa, Rodrigo Fresán, César Aira, Héctor Abad Faciolince, Diamela Eltit?
Diamela Eltit ( the one I know of this list) has had a very merited revival in the last years. For me it would be a glad surprise if she won. Still I think her literature is very characteristic of the period of the Chilean dictatorship.
 

Leseratte

Well-known member
According to Ben´s synthesis one could expect the winner whether prose writer or poet to:
Favor a collective perspective ( somehow related to the fragility of geographical boundaries and existences, which would include Ukraine and neighbors.)
The highlight might be more on collective social and political experience than on individual experience and on new experimental language.
Some revision of the (collective and/or individual) past.
I find it very difficult to guess specially as I still haven´t read many of the authors. To name some favorites:

Our three Wolfie candidates:
Scholastique Mukasonga
Jon Fosse
António Lobo Antunes
and also
Salman Rushdie
and Geetanjali Shree

Poets
Conceição Evaristo (but her poetry is not translated so SA probably doesn´t know about her)
Ali Ahamed Said Esber (Adonis)
 
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