I don't think Updike was ever much of a possibility. Once you get past the sex, what do you have, really? Some nice sentences? Sure, but an awful lot of terrible ones as well. And, as he became older, his work became the discomforting fantasies of a dirty old man. Of course, in the hands of a genius, that could work, but alas.
Roth on the other hand did sex a lot better (and masturbation, let's be honest), and he has proved again and again that he can do more, too. But Nobel worthy? I used to think so, but the more widely I read the less sure I am. Still, I wouldn't be unhappy, and would probably actually be a little chuffed, all told.
Though I do want Kundera or Antunes to win it most of all...