Nobel Prize in Literature 2015 Speculation

[ratomir]

Stumbled upon this very interesting site while scanning the net for the odds on my secret favorite - Margaret Atwood. Not this year, it seems.
I would be just as happy if Roth, Krasznahorkai, Banville or Magris win. As the Academy occasionally likes to annoy political figures, Krasznahorkai might be it.

Some unstructured comments on what other posters wrote.

Nooteboom would be the first ever Nobel winner writing in Dutch. As that language is the central guest at the 2016 Frankfurt Buchmesse, the effect could be large. His oeuvre however is lopsided: three very good novels, but the rest is elevated autobiographical journalism. Someone wrote that Komrij had been considered. This I find hard to believe. The best chances for the Dutch language were for WF Hermans (who got into international translation too late to make an impact) and Hugo Claus (Belgian author from Flanders, where the nationale language is Dutch). Both dead now.

I was surprised to see that Adunis has fans on this site. Some years ago I had to deal with the guy, professionally. What I read from him in translation makes me believe he is, thinking of poets like Ashbery, Simic or Jacottet, a mouse. He has ego, that is sure. Compared to Adunis, Colonel Kadafi suffered from pathological modesty and was held back in his ambitions by destructive lack of self esteem.

Someone dismissed Handke with a one liner. It would be interesting to see a more reasoned opinion. Feel free to use more than 140 characters.

Finally: I made bets every year and always got it wrong, with one exception - Pamuk.
Let's see.

 

[Ruuh]

Someone dismissed Handke with a one liner. It would be interesting to see a more reasoned opinion. Feel free to use more than 140 characters.

It wasn't me, but I also don't see Handke winning this year, if only because he's a translator of Modiano's works, and it would invite accusations of favoritism towards a selected group of writers.

Personally, I'm hoping that the new winner isn't from the West. Maybe after the somewhat unexpected choice of Modiano one of the perennial favourites will get a nod. So, I'd go with Kadare, Oz or Ngugi if I were a betting man.

 

[jimdandy]

Thanks, Daniel, for initiating this thread and thank you all for your generous insights, welcoming incitations & ... wild speculations ...
Just happen to drop by wishing to add a name I feel is sadly missed from this discussion ... György Konrád ...
Thanks again & adios ...

 

[Vazquez]

I was surprised to see that Adunis has fans on this site. Some years ago I had to deal with the guy, professionally. What I read from him in translation makes me believe he is, thinking of poets like Ashbery, Simic or Jacottet, a mouse. He has ego, that is sure. Compared to Adunis, Colonel Kadafi suffered from pathological modesty and was held back in his ambitions by destructive lack of self esteem.

That´s interesting! I must admit that, reading his poetry and watching his interviews, he gave that kind of impression... but I enjoy his poetry. EVEN TOUGH I must admit that 1) I prefer other poets, i.e. Ko Un and 2) I still find it hard to believe he alone made for Arabic poetry what a dozen western poets did to western poetry (I have read this line everywhere). But I´m no expert in Arabic poetry to arguee for or against it.

It looks like it was 2006, with Orhan Pamuk. It was announced on Thursday 12th while the other prizes were week commencing 2nd. Perhaps they argued over whether it was his time given his relative youth with regards to others.

Maybe I´m wrong, but I believe in 2005, with Harold Pinter, they postponed the announcement in one week.

 

[Stewart]

Just happen to drop by wishing to add a name I feel is sadly missed from this discussion ... György Konrád ...

A quick look at the contents of the Swedish Academy's Nobel Library shows there are 42 works listed in relation to Konrad. A number of his novels appear to have been translated between 1970s and 1995. There's a bunch of non-fiction, too. The works collected between the 70s and 80s appear to be Hungarian -> Swedish translations, with the later ones being Hungarian -> German. Perhaps it suggests a falling out of fashion in Swedish literary debate, but one sustained or burgeoning in German literary circles. All guesswork on my part, but it would suggest a continued interest by different 'generations' of the Academy to appraise a writer who likely has been nominated, but who knows to what level he has been shortlisted in the past.

 

[Stewart]

Maybe I´m wrong, but I believe in 2005, with Harold Pinter, they postponed the announcement in one week.

It was delayed. Nobel Prizes were first week in October; Pinter's award was 13th October.

 

[redhead]

I read a small sampling of Aliss at the Fire by Fosse a year ago when his name came up as a possible Nobel contender. The writing struck me as mannered and tedious - similar observations written multiple times with only slight deviations. If that is typical of Fosse's style, then his writing is not for me. Perhaps there's a better entryway to Fosse's work or maybe the Amazon preview was simply not long enough for me to give the book a fair shot. Are there any Fosse fans out there? If so, is there another book you'd recommend as a better place to start?

I think as far as prose goes that's his style. It's a bit annoying at first, but in his books I think it works. It's an intimate form of stream of conscious where you really feel like you're reading thoughts. Might not work for everyone, but you might like his plays better. I've only read one, so I'm not really qualified here, but the comparisons to Beckett and Pinter are merited. Pauses, misunderstandings, barebones, much like his predecessors. Haunting.

I would be just as happy if Roth, Krasznahorkai, Banville or Magris win. As the Academy occasionally likes to annoy political figures, Krasznahorkai might be it.

(...)

Someone dismissed Handke with a one liner. It would be interesting to see a more reasoned opinion. Feel free to use more than 140 characters.

Finally: I made bets every year and always got it wrong, with one exception - Pamuk.
Let's see.

Don't agree with Roth, but the other three I would like to see win. Shame Magris isn't getting any hype this year. While I think it is Fosse's year, I would be more pleased with Banville or Krasznahorkai walking away with it.

If you're referring to me and Handke, I don't think he'll get around his political stunt to win this year. And in the post where I ranked people, I kept him out because I had only read one book by him and didn't think I could fairly put him in with the others.

And, well, it's been almost a decade since Pamuk won, so you're due another correct guess!

 

[Uemarasan]

Well I know you haven't come upon new exciting names yourself, but you just introduced an exciting name to me. The "quiet theater" concept intrigues me a lot, hopefully it won't be too hard to find a copy of his plays.

Anyway, I think playwrights and poets are some of the hardest works to reproduce in another language, much more difficult than short stories or novels. The one Jon Fosse play I've read had an introduction that just consisted of the translator saying how the play, in all it's nuances and pauses and rhythms, is impossible to translate well, you always lose something. From what I remember, the translator opted to keep some of the more repeated words in the original Norwegian and give definitions for them, even though it was clear their uses in the play went far beyond dictionary definitions.

But going back to Oriza Hirata, he is only 52. He has plenty of time to come up in conversation. Fosse barely came up until his sudden rise in odds 2 years ago (which apparently was due to some friends putting money on his name as a birthday present). I wonder how much power odds could have in nominations. Ex. some bozo puts money on a name not even on the list (doesn't have to be much to make it shoot up), someone considers the writer and thinks they have a chance at the prize and then nominates them next time. Clearly wouldn't have much power over the actual selection of winners, but I wonder if someone's ever been nominated on a similar basis.

That's true, and I agree. I think Oriza Hirata faces the same dilemma as Fosse. He is quite difficult to translate faithfully. Well, most Japanese writers are in general, but he is an exceptional case. The nuance and wordplay (and "kanji play"?) are immediately lost, unless a copious amount of footnotes and annotations are included!

It's about time a poet or playwright won the Nobel again, not to mention a nonfiction writer or philosopher, but I do have a gut feeling that a novelist will win again.

 

[Daniel del Real]

Nooteboom would be the first ever Nobel winner writing in Dutch. As that language is the central guest at the 2016 Frankfurt Buchmesse, the effect could be large. His oeuvre however is lopsided: three very good novels, but the rest is elevated autobiographical journalism. Someone wrote that Komrij had been considered. This I find hard to believe. The best chances for the Dutch language were for WF Hermans (who got into international translation too late to make an impact) and Hugo Claus (Belgian author from Flanders, where the nationale language is Dutch). Both dead now.

What are those three good novels by Nooteboom

A quick look at the contents of the Swedish Academy's Nobel Library shows there are 42 works listed in relation to Konrad. A number of his novels appear to have been translated between 1970s and 1995. There's a bunch of non-fiction, too. The works collected between the 70s and 80s appear to be Hungarian -> Swedish translations, with the later ones being Hungarian -> German. Perhaps it suggests a falling out of fashion in Swedish literary debate, but one sustained or burgeoning in German literary circles. All guesswork on my part, but it would suggest a continued interest by different 'generations' of the Academy to appraise a writer who likely has been nominated, but who knows to what level he has been shortlisted in the past.

And it's really hard for him nowadays, he's got pretty stiff competition in Krasznahorkai, Nadas and Esterhazy.

 

[Daniel del Real]

A quick review on the odd movements at Ladbrokes

UP

Jon Fosse 14>10
JoyceCarol Oates 12>10
Ko Un 20>14
Peter Handke 20>14
Nawal El Saadawi 33>16
Peter Nadas 25>16
Anne Carson 50>20
Don DeLillo 50>20
Nuruddin Farah 50>20

DOWN

John Banville 14<16
Adonis 16<20
Ismail Kadare 16<20
Amos Oz 25<33
César Aira 25<33
Marilynne Robinson 25<33
Ursula Le Guin 25<33

Maryse Conde new at 25/1

 

[redhead]

Mayse Conde is also listed on other sites at 19. So much action...I just wish it was more focused on a few writers. There are so many moving up it's hard to tell which one could be serious and which ones are decoys.

 

[Daniel del Real]

Mayse Conde is also listed on other sites at 19. So much action...I just wish it was more focused on a few writers. There are so many moving up it's hard to tell which one could be serious and which ones are decoys.

Hard to tell why people is putting money in writers like Maryse Conde and Anne Carson after the recent wins by Munro and Modiano.

 

[redhead]

I'm not sure about Carson, but for Conde a lot of people are viewing this thread now. It wouldn't surprise me all the talk about her a few pages back inspired someone to drop some money. I haven't seen any other real Nobel buzz discussions about her and I doubt the winner, or even a short listed author, would appear for the first time 2 days before the announcement. Edit: Of course, Danius has mentioned keeping out leaks, so, you never know, maybe stuff was kept private but now it's getting out.

 

[ratomir]

What are those three good novels by Nooteboom

Rituelen - Allerzielen - Philip en de anderen. (In Dutch, with three different editors.)
Rituale - Allerseelen - Filip und die anderen. (In German, all with Suhrkamp)

In English, as far as I can tell only the first two are available, but not sure. For those of you who read French or find that easier, please know you are lucky. His translator Philippe Noble is a bit of a genius.

Filip und die anderen is his first novel, now 60 years ago. Rather impressive. All Souls arguably his best, the book he will remembered for, should he not win the Nobel prize, that is.

 

[Uemarasan]

The movement of Nawal El Saadawi is pretty interesting, though I find what I've read of her work so strongly feminist that any potential literary qualities are subsumed in the name of ideology. I might be mistaken. Has anyone read her? Several of her books are in the Nobel library, though:

http://lib.nobelbiblioteket.se/search~S0/a?El+Saadawi,+Nawal,+1931-&search_code=a

I guess after the death of Assia Djebar, she would be the leading Arab female writing candidate. I don't like it but I hope this isn't a perfect politically correct storm of Arab focus because of the migrant crisis and the first female permanent secretary announcing a female winner for her first time in the limelight.

 

[pinkunicorn]

and I doubt the winner, or even a short listed author, would appear for the first time 2 days before the announcement.

Didn't Herta Müller appear in the betting lists just a couple of days before the announcement?

 

[redhead]

Didn't Herta Müller appear in the betting lists just a couple of days before the announcement?

Not sure. I was under the impression she was listed at 50/1 and then a week or so before jumped to like 3rd place. I checked the speculation thread from back then but I can't find anything saying whether that was when she first appeared. Seems like a frenzy happened back then in that discussion. Too bad I was still in high school when it happened :/

 

[Septularisen]

You can forget Maryse CONDÉ, she's French!...

 

[lucasdiniz]

I wonder if Brazil is ever going to win. We still have Ferreira Gullar, but we basicly lost all of our chances last year, when João Ubaldo Ribeiro and Ariano Suassuna died.

A lot of things are happening in the world but I cannot think of a writer representing it... That's why I think this year's Literature prize is not going to be very political.

 

[redhead]

You can forget Maryse CONDÉ, she's French!...

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, she's from Guadeloupe, a small island in the Caribbean. She does write in French, though, and studied in France for a bit. I'd be annoyed if another French language author got it right after Modiano, but they've done similar things in the past (Pinter & Lessing, or that English language streak they had in the 90's).