Nobel Prize in Literature 2016 Speculation
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The "BREAKING NEWS" part nearly gave me a heart attack. For a moment I thought one of the candidates had died. *0000
Looks like I gotta do some research about Dylan
Sorry!
About Dylan: Blond on Blonde, Highway 61, Blood on the Traks are good places to start.
The Dylan prospect is getting momentum... the last 3 posts at facebook from the Nobel are:
Tagore... a poet in English language.
Toni Morrison: of course the black culture was determinant in Dylan's work.
Steinbeck... another American... great influence to Dylan... his greatest song, Desolarion Row, was inspired in Steinbeck's Cannery Row...
The clues say it all.
And everybody thought the jokes were over... sorry about that too!
EllisIsland
Reader
And didn't he [Dylan] play a concert in Stockholm recently? That cannot be a coincidence...
An article from the french magazine the Nouvel Observateur : http://bibliobs.nouvelobs.com/actua...rature-qui-sont-les-favoris-des-parieurs.html
Ngugi Wa Thiong'o, Delillo, Murakami and Adonis are mentionned as favorites. No surprises.
Another article from french newspaper Le Figaro : http://www.lefigaro.fr/livres/2016/...erature-2016-c-est-encore-loin-l-amerique.php
The Figaro article mentions an author that I haven't given much credit to, but would make an interesting choice as far as American writers go but who probably will never win, Russell Banks.
Ngugi Wa Thiong'o, Delillo, Murakami and Adonis are mentionned as favorites. No surprises.
Another article from french newspaper Le Figaro : http://www.lefigaro.fr/livres/2016/...erature-2016-c-est-encore-loin-l-amerique.php
The Figaro article mentions an author that I haven't given much credit to, but would make an interesting choice as far as American writers go but who probably will never win, Russell Banks.
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Daniel del Real
Moderator
English
Next one: Les Murray
Will eventually win it: Louise Erdrich (will be the next American) Chimamanda Ngozie Adichie
Will never win it: Roth, Pynchon, McCarthy, DeLillo, Oates, Ford, Ashbery, McEwan, etc.
French
Next one: Amin Maalouf
Will eventually win it: Marie N'Diaye, Éric Chevillard
Spanish
Next one: Javier Marías
Will eventually win it: Emiliano Monge
Will never win it: Juan Goytisolo, Juan Marsé, César Aira, Ernesto Cardenal, Nicanor Parra
Portuguese
Next one: Mia Couto
Will eventually win it: Goncalo M. Tavares
Will never win it: Lobo Antunes
Italian
Next one: Claudio Magris
Will never win it: Dacia Maraini
Chinese, Japanese, Korean
Next one: Hwang Sok-Yong
Will eventually win it: Bei Dao
Will never win it: H. Murakami, Ko Un
Eastern European languages
Next one: Laszlo Kraznahorkai
Will eventually win it: Olga Tokarczuk, Cartarescu
Will never win it: Peter Nadas, Kadare, Kundera
Nordic languages
Next one: Jon Fosse
Will eventually win it: Knausgard, Oksanen
Hebrew
Next one: David Grossman
Will never win it: Appelfeld, Yehoshua, Amos Oz
Clueless on the rest of the languages
Svenska Dagbladet did a similar thing as Dagens Nyheter and had a Nobel specultaion interview with their editor of the literature section.
Ngugi, Adunis and Murakami were first presented because they are top 3 at Ladbrokes and it was said that Ngugi or Adunis might win but that Murakami is not Nobel class. The editor then said that she thought Ko Un would win but if it was up to her it would be Anne Carson.
Ngugi, Adunis and Murakami were first presented because they are top 3 at Ladbrokes and it was said that Ngugi or Adunis might win but that Murakami is not Nobel class. The editor then said that she thought Ko Un would win but if it was up to her it would be Anne Carson.
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/137755/heres-fun-rumor-nobel-prize-literature
I'm reading Falling Man and I can say it's a good, strong book.
At nicerodds, Delillo lowest odd is 9.
And the highest odd is 11.
Hmmmmm....
I'm reading Falling Man and I can say it's a good, strong book.
At nicerodds, Delillo lowest odd is 9.
And the highest odd is 11.
Hmmmmm....
Sevastefo
Reader
Although I agree with much of your conjectures, I don't in the case of french or in spanish choices.
In the case of french authors, I think Ernaux, Quignard or Echenoz - any of them - is more likely to be awarded next, ahead of Maalouf.
In the case of spanish ones, I think Muñoz Molina has also more possibilities than Marias...And, anyway... who's Emiliano Monge?
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Daniel del Real
Moderator
Forgot Vila-Matas. They're from the same generation, so one of them will win it, ruining chances for the other two.
Emiliano Monge is a Mexican writer who's not even 40. This a shot for the long future, but check his novel Las Tierras Arrasadas, it should be available in English next year.
OverTheMountains
Reader
I like Daniel's list, to be honest. I have to read a lot of the names there, but based on the reputations I think they are plausible. I'm a little worried about Marie NDiaye. Some of the reviews I have read of her work haven't exactly been glowing - the rest, as far as I can tell, have really good to great chances. But we have a thread for future chances, don't we? We can toss that conversation there, no? And, while we are thinking about transferring the conversation there, I'm surprised that neither Ferante nor Knausgaard are popping up in those grand posts.
Thinking about tomorrow, I guess we are at the point now where we have to select our final guesses.
I want Erdrich or El-Saadawi to win. I sense that Erdrich might never win, sadly, though she should. Maybe her stuff needs to acquire a more international impact. I don't know about El-Saadawi's recent work. I've only been able to find one of her books, and fell for it entirely, and would do so again with any of her other books if I could find them, but I don't think she'll get it in the end.
Thinking practically, that narrows it down to really only three as far as I can tell. Ngugi, who I would like to win, and Adunis, who I would like to read more of, and Delillo, apparently, judging by this conversation at least, and I would like to get into reading his stuff though it scares me for some reason.
I'm going to take a stab. A prediction, if you will. Perhaps not all that bold in the selection, but I'm ok with being a little boring sometimes. I don't think this selection is a bad one after all - if I did I wouldn't be making it - and, though it might be seen as too political, I think it is also difficult to say that his work isn't of great significance in his language and, perhaps, around the world. It shocks me that so many I have found online aren't taken by the power of his works. I don't understand how one cannot be, but I guess it might be translation, or it might be one's personal preferences in verse.
Adunis.
Adunis, by this time tomorrow, will be the world's newest Nobel Laureate.
Thinking about tomorrow, I guess we are at the point now where we have to select our final guesses.
I want Erdrich or El-Saadawi to win. I sense that Erdrich might never win, sadly, though she should. Maybe her stuff needs to acquire a more international impact. I don't know about El-Saadawi's recent work. I've only been able to find one of her books, and fell for it entirely, and would do so again with any of her other books if I could find them, but I don't think she'll get it in the end.
Thinking practically, that narrows it down to really only three as far as I can tell. Ngugi, who I would like to win, and Adunis, who I would like to read more of, and Delillo, apparently, judging by this conversation at least, and I would like to get into reading his stuff though it scares me for some reason.
I'm going to take a stab. A prediction, if you will. Perhaps not all that bold in the selection, but I'm ok with being a little boring sometimes. I don't think this selection is a bad one after all - if I did I wouldn't be making it - and, though it might be seen as too political, I think it is also difficult to say that his work isn't of great significance in his language and, perhaps, around the world. It shocks me that so many I have found online aren't taken by the power of his works. I don't understand how one cannot be, but I guess it might be translation, or it might be one's personal preferences in verse.
Adunis.
Adunis, by this time tomorrow, will be the world's newest Nobel Laureate.
Another pitch in favour of Delillo https://newrepublic.com/article/137739/don-delillos-year-win-nobel-prize
Only a few more hours to go.
Only a few more hours to go.
redhead
Blahblahblah
Another pitch for DeLillo...and Roth? Just let the man have his moment, don't bring up Roth!
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/137755/heres-fun-rumor-nobel-prize-literature
I haven't been paying close attention to the odds, but I think Fosse went down slightly at Unibet.
If it isn't wa Thiong'o or Adunis, I think it will be either Fosse or DeLillo. Or perhaps someone we've never really suspected.
Also, Daniel del Real posted this in last year's spec thread:
2014
Ngugi Wa Thiong'o 7/2
Haruki Murakami 9/2
Svetlana Alexievich 6/1
Patrick Modiano 10/1
Ismail Kadare 10/1
Adonis 10/1
2013
Svetlana Alexievich 4/5
Haruki Murakami 4/1
Joyce Carol Oates 7/1
Assia Djebar 7/1
Alice Munro 8/1
2012
Haruki Murakami 6/4
Peter Nadas 5/2
William Trevor 7/1
Mo Yan 8/1
Alice Munro 8/1
So, was last year when the frontrunner won an anomaly and someone a bit lower down this year will win? (That would point to Fosse or DeLillo.) Or will it be like last year? The odds haven't moved too too much compared to 2013 or 2014, perhaps the winner was there all along again?
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/137755/heres-fun-rumor-nobel-prize-literature
I haven't been paying close attention to the odds, but I think Fosse went down slightly at Unibet.
If it isn't wa Thiong'o or Adunis, I think it will be either Fosse or DeLillo. Or perhaps someone we've never really suspected.
Also, Daniel del Real posted this in last year's spec thread:
2014
Ngugi Wa Thiong'o 7/2
Haruki Murakami 9/2
Svetlana Alexievich 6/1
Patrick Modiano 10/1
Ismail Kadare 10/1
Adonis 10/1
2013
Svetlana Alexievich 4/5
Haruki Murakami 4/1
Joyce Carol Oates 7/1
Assia Djebar 7/1
Alice Munro 8/1
2012
Haruki Murakami 6/4
Peter Nadas 5/2
William Trevor 7/1
Mo Yan 8/1
Alice Munro 8/1
So, was last year when the frontrunner won an anomaly and someone a bit lower down this year will win? (That would point to Fosse or DeLillo.) Or will it be like last year? The odds haven't moved too too much compared to 2013 or 2014, perhaps the winner was there all along again?
Sevastefo
Reader
I've just found this: http://www.aftonbladet.se/kultur/article23700305.ab
Some Swedish critics expressing theirs points of view about who should win, who they want to win and who they think won't win.
Some Swedish critics expressing theirs points of view about who should win, who they want to win and who they think won't win.
Daniel del Real
Moderator
Thanks for the heads up Liam. I meant Oksanen, however I shouldn't put her there as Suomi is not a Nordic language but Uralic, more related to Estonian or Magyar.
Nothing against Nadas (haven't even read him) but I think Krasznahorkai will be awarded in the next 5 years and that will put him out of contention.
Daniel del Real
Moderator
I hope you have a prophet's voice. From all the "plausible" contenders this year Adonis is my favorite; Ngugi would be great as well.
The worst case scenario is of course DeLillo.
Now, are we completely sure the Prize won't stay in Europe?
redhead
Blahblahblah
It could. From 2004 to 2009 it was all Europeans with the exception of Pamuk.
I think the odds are greater than any recent year (okay, 23 years to be precise) that we’ll be hearing the name of an American Nobel laureate announced tomorrow, and most likely a novelist. Are we finally outside of the ripples from aftershock of Engdahl's comments?
If we are to accept that teasing the laureate is a new practice by the academy, then the common thread between three of the four Facebook posts (Faulkner, Steinbeck, Morrison) is American novelist. Seems too odd of a coincidence that those three laureates would be selected to promote the award in the last 72 hours among all other laureates. (Of course, Tagore is the odd man out—but the Nobel Foundation routinely promotes their most popular laureates from time to time, and this could be a red herring.) So, if we take the “teasers” and odds and past speculation to be our clues, does it then suggest this is DeLillo’s year?
DeLillo is very popular in Scandinavia—his blend of comedy and tragedy, simplicity and complexity resonates. Frederic Jameson, a leading postmodern scholar, was P.S. Danius’s mentor. And, he most certainly takes risks in his fiction to varying degrees of achievement, e.g. there is a wide gulf between Underworld and Cosmopolis.
Or, on the other hand, does this mean Roth might have a chance? Lest we forget, Sabbath’s Theatre (the most Rothian of all Roth novels) was published in Sweden for the first time two years ago and he did some promotion for the work despite being retired.
Or, does McCarthy best typify American letters with his concerns about violence and borderland conflicts and the prevalence of the frontier mindset in modern times?
Otherwise, is the academy merely trolling us via Facebook, Twitter, betting odds, press leaks, etc? Like the reveal several years ago that they were placing phantom bets to mislead the booking chatter. That all seems in too much good humor for the Swedes. Likewise the publicity choices seem not idiosyncratic enough to be meaningless, or too specific to imply an unintended coincidence.
Under all the noise, however, the simplest possibility is the most probable as it’s all too easy to convince ourselves of the truth that we want to see, inductively. It’ll probably be Ngūgī wa Thiong'o, Murakami, Ko Un, or Adonis after all.
Personally, my eleventh hour hope is—if the award does in fact go to a North American—for an Anne Carson or Marilynn Robinson laureate.
Bottom line, if they put something out about Buck or Bellow or Sinclair Lewis in the next few hours, then I think we all know what to expect…
If we are to accept that teasing the laureate is a new practice by the academy, then the common thread between three of the four Facebook posts (Faulkner, Steinbeck, Morrison) is American novelist. Seems too odd of a coincidence that those three laureates would be selected to promote the award in the last 72 hours among all other laureates. (Of course, Tagore is the odd man out—but the Nobel Foundation routinely promotes their most popular laureates from time to time, and this could be a red herring.) So, if we take the “teasers” and odds and past speculation to be our clues, does it then suggest this is DeLillo’s year?
DeLillo is very popular in Scandinavia—his blend of comedy and tragedy, simplicity and complexity resonates. Frederic Jameson, a leading postmodern scholar, was P.S. Danius’s mentor. And, he most certainly takes risks in his fiction to varying degrees of achievement, e.g. there is a wide gulf between Underworld and Cosmopolis.
Or, on the other hand, does this mean Roth might have a chance? Lest we forget, Sabbath’s Theatre (the most Rothian of all Roth novels) was published in Sweden for the first time two years ago and he did some promotion for the work despite being retired.
Or, does McCarthy best typify American letters with his concerns about violence and borderland conflicts and the prevalence of the frontier mindset in modern times?
Otherwise, is the academy merely trolling us via Facebook, Twitter, betting odds, press leaks, etc? Like the reveal several years ago that they were placing phantom bets to mislead the booking chatter. That all seems in too much good humor for the Swedes. Likewise the publicity choices seem not idiosyncratic enough to be meaningless, or too specific to imply an unintended coincidence.
Under all the noise, however, the simplest possibility is the most probable as it’s all too easy to convince ourselves of the truth that we want to see, inductively. It’ll probably be Ngūgī wa Thiong'o, Murakami, Ko Un, or Adonis after all.
Personally, my eleventh hour hope is—if the award does in fact go to a North American—for an Anne Carson or Marilynn Robinson laureate.
Bottom line, if they put something out about Buck or Bellow or Sinclair Lewis in the next few hours, then I think we all know what to expect…
Cleanthess
Dinanukht wannabe
Let's see, Tagore = Indian, Faulkner = brilliant prose, Steinbeck = Western America, Toni Morrison = Woman Novelist. I'm getting a strong Louise Erdrich vibe here: we can only hope.
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