Hello! Been trying to post here for a while, but couldn't confirm my email. Thanks for a very interesting discussion!
This year, I've been betting on a Central European / Southeastern European author win — Péter Nádas, Laszlo Krasznahorkai, Mircea Cărtărescu. Given that there have already been two Hungarian Nobel prizes this week, I think Cărtărescu has better chances. I would also add Georgi Gospodinov, but maybe he's still too young.
As a Russian national, I'd love to see a win for Vladimir Sorokin, Maria Stepanova or Lyudmila Petrushevskaya, but considering the current status of everything Russian, I don't think it's their year, though in my opinion all three are very deserving.
Also, I don't think I saw Julian Barnes being mentioned? I'd love to see him being awarded the Nobel.