After reading Morning and Evening, and also a really nice interview with him when that book was recently published in Croatia, I would love Fosse win.
About others:
I also think that Nadas is more likely than Krasznahorkai, since he is significantly older.
My wild card would be Ondaatje - similar to Ishiguro, a writer in English who is very famous and thus overlooked as a potential winner.
I expect them to keep the newfound "tradition" of male winners for odd years and female for even years, so I don't expect a woman.