My own two cents. Transparently, I've been quite unimpressed by the first three 2020 choices, especially compared to the first three in 2000 or 2010.
While I read far less poetry than I do novels or theater, it's disheartening that Adonis -- whom I believe a far more deserving winner than most -- is likely precluded because the SA opted for Gluck. Nothing against her, but if one is to choose a poet once every 10 years or so, it's a shame it hadn't been someone as revolutionary as him. He'd be my first choice. A worthy successor to the magnificent Mahfouz selection over three decades ago.
If we are going by trends, the fourth choice in 2000 is Coetzee, a fantastic selection, whereas conversely in 2010 it had been the utter mediocrity that is Modiano, who reads to me as a second-rate Sebald (who died too early for that particular nomination) or Drndic (who ought to have received it in his place). I can understand the divisiveness of Ishiguro, Dylan or Handke, but surprised Modiano is always lumped in as one of the great selections of the past decade. Anyways, I digress.
For tomorrow, I think Fosse is most likely to win if they stick to Europe, though an Asian winner is seemingly overdue. If Asia, I think Lianke.
Edit: I realized that 2010s fourth choice was Munro (not Modiano). She is fantastic.