Jon Fosse's Nordic Council Prize got me thinking: unless the Nobel winner is an older, famed writer where it's kind of surprising they had not already won (Vargas Llosa, Tranströmer, Munro), they like to give it to a writer who recently (like past 5 years) published a book being hailed as a masterpiece (Müller and Atemschaukel, Mo Yan and Frog, Alexievich and The Second Hand of Time). Not always the case, but enough that it might be beneficial to consider this when considering younger possibilities. Some writers who fall into this:
Mircea Cartarescu- Swedish critics second pick for this year. Blinding is quite an acheivement.
Jon Fosse- The one who made me think of this. His trilogy just won the most prestigious Scandinavian novel prize. Between that and his reputation as a playwright, the only things that might hold him back are his young age, the academy's possible reluctance to return to Scandinavia so soon after Tranströmer's win, and perhaps an academy members preference for one of the other great Norwegian writers coming into prominence now.
Richard Flanagan- Have not heard much about him in regards to the Nobel; also have not yet read him. But on the basis of his reputation, he seems like he deserves to be in the conversation. He's the youngest one here and might need another few years, but the general consensus is that he has 2 masterpieces under his belt and the rest of his work isn't too shabby either.
Laszlo Krasznahorkai- Only in a literature prize could someone aged 61 be considered on the younger side. His recent hype and Seiobo There Below could give him the boost he needs.
Can Xue- I don't think she'll have a shot for a while. With Mo Yan's recent win, I think they'd prefer to give it to a more overt dissident. Can Xue's work has been interpreted as falling under this category in the west, but she herself insists it is nothing of the sort. Still, she should not be counted out.
William T. Vollmann- The Dying Grass has given him some of the best reviews of his career. I still stand by my claim that the academy, if it does give the Nobel to him, would wait until the seven dreams is complete, but you never know. He's probably the least insular American writer right now. His work isn't for everyone, but there have been times in the past where an academy member has been a superfan of a writer and gone out of their way to ensure their author wins, and Vollmann seems prone to getting rapid fans.
And I'm sure there are a ton more that I'm forgetting. Usually I have a good idea of who will probably get the award (this year it will be a woman, this time to a lesser known European, etc), only to get sidetracked as the speculation goes on (and though the profile I originally picked was correct, the winner was no one I expected). I've finally realized I should just listen to my inner voice at the beginning, only to now have no idea at all about next year's laureate. The two last years it's gone to a European, but then, depending on how you view citizenship, it went to Europeans from 2004 to 2011, and as much as I'd like them to honor non-European literature, Europe does probably have the highest concentration of deserving authors.