Nobel Prize in Literature 2020 Speculation

[Americanreader]

I agree with lucasdiniz, I also read "Woman at Point Zero", and I had a sort of disappointed reaction to it. She does seem like an interesting possible laureate, maybe I'll pick up another one of her books. Considering the Academy's recent inability to read the room with the Handke award (an award which I did like), I doubt the Academy cares about the current climate. It would be nice though, and maybe they surprise us this year.

 

[Americanreader]

They seem to me to go in phases, the Pinter award was partly political I think (considering his position against the Iraq war) then the Pamuk one was too with his troubles with the Turkish government. Then they turn around and give it to whoever they want regardless of politics or lack thereof, like Munro or Handke.

 

[Stevie B]

I read "Woman at Point Zero" with a lot of expectations, maybe that's why I ended it quite disappointed. Still, she's such an interesting person. I feel like I could listen to her talk all day. I want to read her autobiography, though.

I've shared this story in the past here, but I have good memories of attending a Nawal El Saadawi reading/discussion as a graduate student. During the discussion, she was heavily criticized for not covering her hair by two young American women who had married Saudi men and converted to Islam. El Saadawi responded in a very sassy but not contemptuous manner, and made the two young women look like fools. They were simply out of their league trying to match wits with the Egyptian author.

 

[Deleted member 83959]

She has nothing checked out in the Nobel Library and they haven’t purchased any of her works since 2014. Seems very unlikely they’d be considering her.

Since it’s likely she’s been on the shortlist for years I’m still going with Anne Carson (as I did the last few years). Numerous other poets (a few in English) appear to have many works checked out. My theory is that Carson has been on the shortlist for years and now they’re comparing her works against other poets.

My shortlist this year would be:

Anne Carson
Javier Marias
Jon Fosse
Marilynne Robinson
David Grossman

It also seems noteworthy to mention that as of this year there are four new Academy members, all women who will be voting. Additionally two empty seats currently with the deaths of Goran Malmqvist (last October) and Kristins Lugn (a few weeks ago). So 5 women and 11 men.

 

[Camillo]

I'm not sure if Marilynne Robinson will win this year, because she is going to publish new novel soon. She doesn't have many of them so the Academy may want to wait to the next year.
David Grossman had about 10 his books checked out in May. But when I checked it again a week ago (when they had a shortlist, I think) he had 5 books checked out, and now he has 6. It convinced me to think that they might reject him from the shortlist.

My shortlist:

Can Xue
Anne Carson
Annie Ernaux
Jon Fosse
Peter Nadas / Marilynne Robinson

I also think about Charles Simic, a poet, because he has 18 his books checked out. I don't think that poetry is so popular among public readers and that number must mean something. This thing is also connected with Louise Glück with 17 her books checked out.

 

[DouglasM]

It would be amazing if the Nobel Prize went to a poet again. The last one was Tranströmer (or Dylan depending on your criteria). I really like Bei Dao's work. It could even be a joint award with Can Xue, although it's unlikely.

Speaking of poetry, I'm afraid I don't know much about the works of African poets. Would anyone have good names to share?

 

[Liam]

In my opinion, a Nobel is NEVER wasted when given to a poet,

I have never, not ONCE, been disappointed when a poet won (with the exception of Bob Dylan, but I don't consider him a poet).

And to answer Douglas, you'd have to be more specific: Africa is such a huge continent and it probably makes a lot of difference if you want to read say, an Egyptian poet writing in Arabic or a South African poet writing in English or Afrikaans or a Mozambique poet writing in Portuguese, etc etc.

I think that Chinua Achebe and Wole Soyinka, though primarily known as writers of prose, both published a few volumes of poetry.

Ngugi wa Thiong'o's upcoming book The Perfect Nine is a novel-in-verse.

There should obviously be more names, but African literature(s) is not really my specialty, so I'm looking forward to hearing from someone else who is better informed about this.

 

[Camillo]

I'm also not a specialist in African poetry but I know two poets from South Africa who are translated in my country - Breyten Breytenbach and Antjie Krog.

 

[Johnny]

I‘be heard great things of Antjie Krog, another of my reading goals is to read more modern poets. In fairness Anne Carson would be a worthy winner.

 

[Johnny]

I don't think that Marilynne Robinson will win this year, because she is going to publish new novel this year. She doesn't have many of them so the Academy may want to wait to the next year.
David Grossman had about 10 his books checked out in May. But when I checked it again a week ago (when they had a shortlist, I think) he had 5 books checked out, and now he has 6. It convinced me to think that they might reject him from the shortlist.

My shortlist:

Can Xue
Anne Carson
Annie Ernaux
Jon Fosse
Peter Nadas

I also think about Charles Simic, a poet, because he has 18 his books checked out. I don't think that poetry is so popular among public readers and that number must mean something. This thing is also connected with Louise Glück with 17 her books checked out.

What about Knausgaard, what do we think? His reputation seems to be growing all the time and well respected around here also.

 

[Daniel del Real]

What about Knausgaard, what do we think? His reputation seems to be growing all the time and well respected around here also.

I think he deserves the Nobel solely for My Struggle. Now, I don't know about what he has written after, not sure if it has the same quality.
However, for a Norwegian author I'd favored Kjell Askildsen and his mastery in the short story. His age (90) and the fact of not being a prolific writer might harm his chances.
Let's also consider many of Knausgard's influences are still there: Kjartan Fløgstad, Jan Kjærstad, Dag Solstad. Haven't read them but when Knausgard talks about their works in his books he seems to have a great respect for all of them.
Although Jon Fosse is 9 years older than Knausgard they can be considered from the same generation. I think, eventually, one of them will win the Nobel, immediately crossing out the other.

 

[DouglasM]

And to answer Douglas, you'd have to be more specific: Africa is such a huge continent and it probably makes a lot of difference if you want to read say, an Egyptian poet writing in Arabic or a South African poet writing in English or Afrikaans or a Mozambique poet writing in Portuguese, etc etc.

I understand your point and agree with it, Liam, but the fact is I literally know zero poets from any country in Africa, so I welcome any suggestions that anyone may have - just a starting point.

And thank you Camillo and Johnny for those South African names!

 

[redhead]

What about Knausgaard, what do we think? His reputation seems to be growing all the time and well respected around here also.

I enjoyed the first and fifth volumes of My Struggle (I haven’t read the others; I kind of skipped to the fifth to read about Jon Fosse). Based off of those, I don’t know if I’d root for him to win, but he’s deserving enough. I’d prefer Fosse, though.

At 51, however, I think he’s too young, and like Daniel said, him winning would probably cross out a lot of other Norwegian names, including Fosse, who I think is more likely to be on the shortlist this year

 

[Liam]

but the fact is I literally know zero poets from any country in Africa

I'm in the same boat! ?

 

[Johnny]

I enjoyed the first and fifth volumes of My Struggle (I haven’t read the others; I kind of skipped to the fifth to read about Jon Fosse). Based off of those, I don’t know if I’d root for him to win, but he’s deserving enough. I’d prefer Fosse, though.

At 51, however, I think he’s too young, and like Daniel said, him winning would probably cross out a lot of other Norwegian names, including Fosse, who I think is more likely to be on the shortlist this year

Yes I think you’re right, he’s probably too young but he’s got a great chance in the future. The more I read of him the more I appreciate his writing, he’s also a superb, insightful and generous critic. It will be fascinating to see where he goes from here.

 

[Bartleby]

Yes I think you’re right, he’s probably too young but he’s got a great chance in the future. The more I read of him the more I appreciate his writing, he’s also a superb, insightful and generous critic. It will be fascinating to see where he goes from here.

It’d be nice if Fosse won now (or maybe next year when his septology will have been published in its entirety), and after ten years at least Knausgård did, assuming he by then continues to live up to his current high standards, or better yet, improve on what he’s achieved so far.

I’d bet a shortlist right now looks like this:

Can Xue
Annie Ernaux
Anne Carson
Jon Fosse
Marilynne Robinson

I agree tho that they might want to wait till next year for Robinson, since her latest novel isn’t out until late September; kind of the same for Fosse.

guess the first three have the highest likelihood of winning this year.
from what I’ve gathered I agree Carson would be a deserving winner, although in general, since she relies too much on ancient poetry and the reader’s knowledge of it for her work to be properly appreciated, I admit I’m not so drawn to her; but just because I don’t fancy putting on a lot of work into getting her art doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be glad if she won; if her work is really all that great it deserves to be so recognised, accessibility having nothing to do with it all.

I’d bet on one of the first two getting it this year. I could see all the Ernaux books checked out due to her popularity tho.

 

[Liam]

As we've seen with Ishiguro, a small and modest oeuvre (I'm talking quantity) won't preclude you from winning the Nobel. Which is good news for Robinson.

 

[Bartleby]

As we've seen with Ishiguro, a small and modest oeuvre (I'm talking quantity) won't preclude you from winning the Nobel. Which is good news for Robinson.

And before him Morrison, with six novels published when she got it. (Not to mention Aleksievitch, more recently). I’m really hoping Robinson’s Jack is up there with the rest of her output so far.

and well, if they want to address the current state of the US, with her works (both novels and essays) offering commentary on the legacy of the civil war, racial inequality, democracy (along with, yes, an examination of Christianity’s importance in the founding of America), well, this is the time.

would it be impossible to imagine they getting an advanced copy (either physical or virtual) of Jack?

 

[Deleted member 83959]

Knausgaard isn’t going to win, this year (or likely ever). And I say this as someone who’s met him in person, has numerous signed books by him, and is a huge fan.

Much of My Struggle and his Seasons books suffer from the same issue that plagues Murakami’s works: tons and tons of pop culture, musical, and technology references that are going to date his works and within even a decade will seem outdated. They aren’t works that are “timeless.” If this sort of writing is the nail in Murakami’s coffin I fail to see how these don’t sink Knausgaard as well. I mean in 20 years is the world really going to care that after dropping off his kid at school he found an old Sting CD under his car seat?

He has two fiction novels. If he writes many more of those I can see him winning but nothing detailed in My Struggle or Seasons is Nobel worthy. Currently it doesn’t look like he’s pivoting back to fiction.

The writing quality throughout both series he’s written is inconsistent. At times in Seasons he experiments with narrators and point of view and it’s legitimately fresh and interesting but much of the writing is literally dictionary definitions written for a small child.

Large portions of My Struggle read like a blog and have no lasting literary value (all the stories about his band, him awkwardly critiquing other contemporary writers, discussions of his kids’ iPads and children’s cartoons).

Aside from those we have a co-written book about being a Football fan and short write up of Munch written because a museum paid him to organize an exhibition.

I can’t see how this oeuvre wins him a Nobel unless he starts cranking out works like his second novel again.

He also literally just won the Swedish Academy Nordic Prize last year. So they’ve considered his works and assessed them. If after doing that they didn’t give him a Nobel I fail to see how so immediately they’d consider him for one. Transtromer won the Nobel 20 years after that. So maybe in 2039 he’ll win.

Moving on, having a new book out this year wouldn’t hurt Robinson’s chances in any way. This happens often:

2014: Modiano
2010: Vargas Llosa
2009: Herta Muller
2008: Le Clezio
2007: Lessing
2003: Coetzee
2001: Naipaul

Etc

 

[Liam]

I mean in 20 years is the world really going to care that after dropping off his kid at school he found an old Sting CD under his car seat?

I'm reading this now and I already don't care, ☺