Nobel Prize in Literature 2021 Speculation

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garzuit

Former Member
Do you guys have any idea if Fernando Aramburu is in the library? To be honest, I just don't understand how to use it. But his novel "Patria" is getting lots of attention, has won multiple awards and it's also getting a series done by HBO.
Read that novel now, my friend. One of the best books you'll read in years. I would say Aramburu doesn't have the international projection to win the Nobel though, I also don't know if the rest of his books are of the same quality as Patria.
 

Bartleby

Moderator
Read that novel now, my friend. One of the best books you'll read in years. I would say Aramburu doesn't have the international projection to win the Nobel though, I also don't know if the rest of his books are of the same quality as Patria.
just found out that it was translated into pt here in Brasil :) Thank you and Ludus for the recommendation! I'll put it on my list.
 
Hard to find what we really looking for this year?
Maybe... One men, that doesn't writing in English, and maybe not an European...
So South America, Africa, or Asia?
 

hayden

Well-known member
According to this italian article (https://www.homolaicus.com/letteratura/nobel-letteratura.htm), the favorites for this year are :

Margaret Atwood

Haruki Murakami

Maryse Condé

Javier Marías

Lyudmila Oulitskaya

Ngugi Wa Thiongo’o


Not very realistic in my opinion...

Apart from maybe Thiong'o (who I think always has a slight chance, especially with a few books out), I'm not feeling any of those this year. I'm not one of those people who would love for Murakami to win, but I'm also not one of the people who thinks he has a 0% chance. I think he may be a legit contender this decade, just... not sure about this year (for some reason).

I also want to add two names to my original post, and those are Yu Hua and Dubravka Ugrešić. They both have a decent handful of books checked out of the library, and both could fit the bill as a dark horse winner this year. I would be more apt to Yu Hua winning than Can Xue to be honest (no complaints about either though).

Maybe... One men, that doesn't writing in English, and maybe not an European...

Couto fits all of that (as do Thiong'o and Yu Hua).

I don't see why they would be adverse to picking a European though. One year gap away from Europe seems like a decade for them. I also don't think the idea of two female writers in a row is off the table. It would be a first, and they may even lean that way (Ernaux, Can Xue, etc).
 

Bartleby

Moderator
Couto fits all of that (as do Thiong'o and Yu Hua).

I don't see why they would be adverse to picking a European though. One year gap away from Europe seems like a decade for them. I also don't think the idea of two female writers in a row is off the table. It would be a first, and they may even lean that way (Ernaux, Can Xue, etc).
I was pondering over this question of two women winning in a row when this thread was opened, but decided not to go that way; but since you touched on it: I keep thinking the SA for some reason believes they’d run out of really worthy women to award real quick (in terms of having a thematically consistent and overall strong body of work — no doubt there should be tons of writers of the gender who have written, say, one or two great books, but perhaps the rest just doesn’t live up to them... I don’t know, I’m just trying to reason as a member of the academy perhaps would) if they go on to give the prize to a woman the likes of a Carson or Ernaux or Can Xue (etc) year after year, making them look bad when they award a man for some 5-10 years in a row.

not saying it is impossible; but I think it’s a man this time. And I agree that if they’re looking for a candidate outside of the territories the award usually goes to, Couto could be their pick. But I could very well see them just not caring about it and going for Fosse instead (maybe Knausgaard?); and I wouldn’t rule Houellebecq out. They sure like their controversial European writers hehe
 
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spooooool

Reader
M John Harrison is one of the very best contemporary writers, as to British English...."Things that Never Happen", "Anima", so very much recommended. In days of yore used to piss me off and then some to see and hear MJH so little known and heard (of). He has a wondrous blog, too.
 
Couto fits all of that (as do Thiong'o and Yu Hua).

Yes. Another name for Africa could be Ben OKRI, and I must say that I'm a big fan of Mr. José Eduardo AGUALUSA.

I don't see why they would be adverse to picking a European though. One year gap away from Europe seems like a decade for them. I also don't think the idea of two female writers in a row is off the table. It would be a first, and they may even lean that way (Ernaux, Can Xue, etc).

Unfortunately absolutely true. So don't be surprise if at the end we will see names like : Mircea CARTARESCU or Laszlo KRASZNAHORKAI...
 

redhead

Blahblahblah
I keep thinking the SA for some reason believes they’d run out of really worthy women to award real quick (in terms of having a thematically consistent and overall strong body of work — no doubt there should be tons of writers of the gender who have written, say, one or two great books, but perhaps the rest just doesn’t live up to them... I don’t know, I’m just trying to reason as a member of the academy perhaps would) if they go on to give the prize to a woman the likes of a Carson or Ernaux or Can Xue (etc) year after year, making them look bad when they award a man for some 5-10 years in a row.

The SA is made up of older Swedish people and is arguably by its very nature a conservative institution. I think we all know why there’s such a gender imbalance in the winners.
 

Bartleby

Moderator
I think we all know why there’s such a gender imbalance in the winners.
Well... I don’t. I don’t know them, we can only make suppositions (unless it can somehow be proven, like that Engdahl quote about American literature being too insular — even if his comments were mostly misunderstood).
And yes, many great writers who were women* were not recognised by the academy in the past (both recent and distant) — just as many men weren’t, for many reasons... there’s Tolstoy and them apparently respecting the author’s wish not to receive the prize; there are the writers who didn’t go well with the ascetic, lofty idealistic, aesthetic politics of the time, such as Ibsen, Zola, Strindberg etc... then we have also to remember that for most of it the SA depends (and depended) on nominations — Woolf didn’t get one, nor did Joyce etc. As we’ve seen recently, in 1970 only a couple of women were nominated! I haven’t even touched on the topic of publishers and their role in allowing women to be published...
I understand your reasoning, tho... I just think the issue may be broader than just pointing the finger at the academy (specially its current iteration - from Gordimer on, 20 to 10 is a fairly good proportion, and they haven’t shied away from writers who, while stylistically strong, also spoke loud about, say, “important” issues; thinking of Gordimer herself, Morrison, Jelinek, Lessing, Müller, Aleksievitch, Tokarczuk...).

*it’s so strange referring to people based on their gender in English! I could use the words male or female but I keep remembering what Claire Denis had to say about this, and I agree with her.
 
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nagisa

Spiky member
Well... I don’t. I don’t know them, we can only make suppositions (unless it can somehow be proven, like that Engdahl quote about American literature being too insular).
We can only make suppositions about the abysmal gender balance, let's just abstract the fact that world societies have been deeply and structurally misogynistic for centuries, these phenomena have no causal relationship I can see, no indeed.

And yes, many great writers who were women* were not recognised by the academy in the past (both recent and distant) — just as many men weren’t, for many reasons...

...well, mathematically, no, by definition.

from Gordimer on, 20 to 10 is a fairly good proportion...
Women = 50% of the population, not 1/3. They're getting better, though, yes.

*it’s so strange referring to people based on their gender in English! I could use the words male or female but I keep remembering what Claire Denis had to say about this, and I agree with her.

Claire Denis also thinks that Weinstein is a "bourgeois", boring affair and she defends Polanski. She's a great film director who creates powerful female characters, but I'm not sure about the clear-sightedness of her politics on gender.
 

Leemo

Well-known member
Women = 50% of the population, not 1/3. They're getting better, though, yes.

If you flip a coin 30 times, do you always expect the results to be exactly 15 heads and 15 tails? Strict performative benchmarks, such as requiring a 50/50 gender distribution for such an award, results in the judges having to include gender as a criteria of judgement; which in my view is the opposite of how things should be treated. The best way to make up for previous sexism is to stop being sexist, not to be sexist against other genders.

Also, for whatever it's worth, if we arbitrarily look at the past 8 years instead of arbitrarily looking at the past 30 years, the gender distribution is 50/50...
 

nagisa

Spiky member
If you flip a coin 30 times, do you always expect the results to be exactly 15 heads and 15 tails?
...again, mathematically, yes, if you repeat the experiment enough times. That's how statistics work. That the laureates of the Swedish academy have a bad gender balance overall should make us ask interrogate why that's the case, not airily wave away concerns saying we can only make suppositions as Bartleby said which is what I was responding to.

Strict performative benchmarks, such as requiring a 50/50 gender distribution for such an award, results in the judges having to include gender as a criteria of judgement; which in my view is the opposite of how things should be treated. The best way to make up for previous sexism is to stop being sexist, not to be sexist against other genders.
I'm not calling for "strict performative benchmarks", just attention to what the situation is and why. As to whether recognition of past bias and reparative action is necessarily being "sexist against other genders" (the reverse-discrimination argument), I don't necessarily want to get into it here, but it's an open question.

Also, for whatever it's worth, if we arbitrarily look at the past 8 years instead of arbitrarily looking at the past 30 years, the gender distribution is 50/50...
And I heartily approve and hope they keep it up! Again, repeated enough times, and without bias, the experiment evens out. Which goes back to the original issue: why not a second woman winner in a row? Not convinced by Bartleby's waffle below.

I was pondering over this question of two women winning in a row when this thread was opened, but decided not to go that way; but since you touched on it: I keep thinking the SA for some reason believes they’d run out of really worthy women to award real quick (in terms of having a thematically consistent and overall strong body of work — no doubt there should be tons of writers of the gender who have written, say, one or two great books, but perhaps the rest just doesn’t live up to them... I don’t know, I’m just trying to reason as a member of the academy perhaps would) if they go on to give the prize to a woman the likes of a Carson or Ernaux or Can Xue (etc) year after year, making them look bad when they award a man for some 5-10 years in a row.
 

Liam

Administrator
I think this is especially interesting NOW, when (I hope) plenty of women are getting nominated: but addressing the Academy's historical gender bias, remember: they could only work with nominated candidates, so the thing to do would be to consult the publicly available records for the years 1900-1970 and to see how many women were NOMINATED for the award, because that would give us the pool of potential nominees that the Academy (during the first 70 years of the Prize) had to work with. If there were plenty of women nominated and the board chose not to award them then yes, you can talk of a definite gender bias.
 

Bartleby

Moderator
Not really a reply; it’s apparently not worth it... but can we all just try to respect each other’s opinions (when presented reasonably, and in good faith), specially when not agreeing with them, understanding that conversation is one of the greatest tools we have for achieving enlightenment, and that it should be done in the spirit of conviviality?

I sure hope it’s not too much to ask.
 

Leemo

Well-known member
...again, mathematically, yes, if you repeat the experiment enough times. That's how statistics work. That the laureates of the Swedish academy have a bad gender balance overall should make us ask interrogate why that's the case, not airily wave away concerns saying we can only make suppositions as Bartleby said which is what I was responding to.

Mathematically, the chances of flipping a coin 30 times and having it land on heads 15 times and tails 15 times is ~14%. 30 Coin flips repeated infinitely is no longer 30 coin flips, that's an infinite amount of coin flips.

Which goes back to the original issue: why not a second woman winner in a row? Not convinced by Bartleby's waffle below.
Why not, of course. I just hope and expect the SA doesn't care as much about gender as the public seems to, and they make their decisions based strictly on literary merit. If that happens to be women for 10 straight years then that's great, just as it would be if it were men victors for 10 straight years.
 
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