Nobel Prizes in Literature 2019 Speculation

[Daniel del Real]

Hey Nirvirthi. Thank you for this detailed insight on your favorites for the Nobel and welcome to the forum. Here are some comments I have on some of the names you list:

New names: As many users here I always thank for new names, if not likely to win the prize, of great quality and worthy of being read. Here is the case of Zoran Zivkovic and Gabriela Adamesteanu. Without knowing their merits or resumes, both can be considered underdogs, even in their own country, against names which you mentioned like Cartarescu or Ugresic (I know it's not the same country but it's Balcanic and language-wise) and one of my favourite poets, Ana Blandiana.

Bellatin and Castellanos Moya: I've read many novels by both of them and although I like what they do, I cannot consider them as real candidates for the Nobel, not even for the Cervantes to be honest. Bellatin does something quite similar to what Aira does, and although I'm not completely sold on Aira he keeps gaining momentum with his short, imaginative, divertimento novels.

Mia Couto: I couldn't agree more with you on this one. He's been a very solid writer since his debut with Sleepwalking, to the release of his latest monumental trilogy As Areias do Emperador, which I read a couple of months ago. He is a very gifted narrator which blends the socio political reality in Mozambique along with the oral traditions and the folklore of the native people.

Olga Tokarczuk and Laszlo Krasznahorkai: They have won many prizes because they are tremendous writers, which also fit perfectly on what the academy is looking for (even the age). Trust me, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this duo is mentioned as the recipients of the 18 and 19 awards.

Muñoz Molina: He is a fine writer, with a very broad spectrum crossing his ouvre. However, I'd still put Javier Marías ahead; Lately he has created two magnific novels in Thus the Bad Begins and Berta Isla, both of them highly praised by critics and media. Vila-Matas on the other side has lost momentum as his latest published works have not been well received. Marías is a very polemic individual, especially with his column in the journal El País, but I don't think this plays against him for his chances to the Nobel.

Hamid Ismailov: I recently discovered this writer. I read his Dead Lake and I thought it was fantastic. I think what you mention is key in giving him possibilities "None has succeeded as much as Ismailov is reconciling Central Asian literary traditions with contemporary international realities" For some reason I read it like the sentence the Academy quotes for which they award the prize to a writer.

 

[redhead]

Thank you Nirvithi for the interesting post. Many names there I hadn't heard of before.

My probables list this year is rather a long list, but let me warn you this is a merit list and not based on some strange logic the Academy applies year after year

Warn us?? I think the merit lists are always the best; besides, a fair amount of people have tried to winnow the list of potential laureates by trying to apply some made-up logic the Academy supposedly follows each year (myself included), and all of them have failed miserably.

My one quibble with your post is at the very end, about Can Xue. Although they are both Asian, they're very different writers with very different upbringings. If the Academy wanted to seriously consider Can Xue, I doubt Ishiguro's recent win would make them pause.

Also, I recently finished The Melancholy of Resistance, 2 collections by Louise Glück (The Wild Iris and The Triumph of Achilles) and A Sorrow Beyond Dreams. I'll try to post some more in-depth thoughts in the "Finished" thread, but since all are relevant to the discussion here, I thought I might as well say something here:

Melancholy of Resistance: Incredible. Krasznahorkai's dense books seem right up my alley. I was surprised at how humorous the book was, as I was expecting an unrelenting, oppressive depression within its pages. I couldn't read it for too many pages at a time, mainly because the pages took me so long to get through, but whenever I put the book down, my thoughts would gravitate back toward it. If the rest of his work is like this, Krasznahorkai would be a very deserving winner.

The Wild Iris and The Triumph of Achilles: Might as well group the Glück together. She writes in a fairly easy-to-follow manner, direct on the surface level with touches of profound lyricism; I read both of these in the same day as a result. The poems in The Wild Iris contemplated man cast out of the Garden of Eden, forming a sort of "cycle," but it never felt pretentious or overly philosophical. Glück is in full control here. In contrast, The Triumph of Achilles is one of her earlier works, and it shows. Her writing is still straightforward here, but also a bit more "showy," occasionally to its detriment. The poems here are less focused than they are in The Wild Iris, but if I had to pick an overarching theme, I would say it's death; unfortunately, not too many of these poems connected with me, and looking online I see I'm far from the only one who felt this way. Perhaps I was expecting too much after The Wild Iris, but I was left disappointed. That said, I will definitely be checking out more of her work.

A Sorrow Beyond Dreams: A bunch of posters on here recommended this, and wow, you guys did not mislead me. This was an incredible work. The story of his mother was almost so powerful I had to fight back a few tears when I finished this during my lunch at work. Handke's work exploring language has struck me on an intellectual level, but always left me somewhat cold and uninvolved and feeling that perhaps it was somewhat self-indulgent. It was the exact opposite here, and Handke's flights of philosophy in contemplating language only added to this novella. In regards to the Nobel, I still feel like his political views will keep him from winning, but from based on his work he would be a deserving winner (although it wouldn't be a big deal, a la Borges or Nabokov, if he never won).

Also, one final thing for this post: looks like a few more books are out in the Academy library. Can Xue has a few books due later in August which were previously due earlier, and she, Mayröcker and Handke all have some due back in September. With Handke, it looks like a bunch of his more recent books are among those checked out. (Tokarzcuk, Krasnahorkai, Marias, Nadas, and Carson also have books due in September, although since there haven't been many books by them checked out and that still continues, it might mean nothing much.) Since the library is apparently closed to the public until tomorrow the 13th, it could mean something (or absolutely nothing at all... who knows).

 

[Deleted member 83959]

With two getting the prize this year and in the backdrop of all that has happened with the Academy of late (Bob Dylan’s prize and the Academy scandal), speculation should reach unprecedented levels this year. My probables list this year is rather a long list, but let me warn you this is a merit list and not based on some strange logic the Academy applies year after year:
1, Horacio Castellanos Moya (El Salvador) – limited oeuvre, but piercing in impact. His “Dance with the Snakes” and “Senselessness” have no parallels anywhere.
2. Zoran Zivkovic (Serbia) – The Papyrus trilogy made us sit up and take note. What he wrote later confirmed the impression that the underlying sardonic humour is truly 21[SUP]st[/SUP] centuriyish and he is in a space of his own.
3. Jaan Kaplinski (Estonia): If a poet gets the nod this year it could be this immensely talented and perceptive voice from a little known part of the world.
4. Mario Bellatin (Mexico): His “Jacob the Mutant” had a feel quite unlike the Latin American experience we anticipate from the South of America. The English translation of his latest, “Uruguayan Book of Dead” is yet to reach me. But, going by reports it is a major work of recent years and that yardstick of the Academy should suit his candidature very well.
5. Mircea Cartarescu (Romania): His “Nostalgia” and the more recent “Blinding” with its experimental mix of memoir and fiction and the consummate craft employed to achieve a seamless blend that leaves you gasping at times makes him an ideal candidate on sheer literary merit. He has all the major awards with him except the Booker and Nobel. Serious candidate, sure.
6. Mia Couto (Mozambique): If anyone with African nationality should win, it could be him. His “Sleepwalking” woke us up from slumber and made us rub our eyes. Whatever he wore subsequently until the recent “Pensativities” have been consistent with the first impression. The intellectual depth and the broad spectrum that we find in “Pensativities” is truly matchless.
7. Jon Fosse (Norway): If a major playwright is honoured this year, it should be Jon Fosse. His cryptic and atmospheric writing carries a unique stamp of authenticity and is truly international in its emotional appeal.
8. William T Vollman (USA): The eclectic spread of his writing and scholarship based on real life experience should make him a dear choice. Controversial, unconventional and often provocative he stands on a unique pedestal. His seven volume treatise on violence is one of its kind. I have only read the abridged one volume version, but that is truly revealing. His writings on environmental issues and a whole lot of stuff that we should be concerned about make him a deserved candidate more for his non-fiction writing than for his novels and short stories.
9. Dubravka Ugresic (Croatia): She could be the most likely female candidate this year. Playful, inventive, entertaining, perceptive, experimental – you can use an many adjectives to qualify her writing. Her publications in the last five years have all received critical acclaim. So that makes her hot property this year.
10. Gabriela Adamesteanu (Romania): Another female candidate whose immense talent hasn’t yet received the attention it deserves. “It is not the future that brings us the biggest surprises, but the past which all our lives we never stop rereading”: this incisive quote from her latest novel ‘A Love Story and a Book about Love’ can be a beginning for anyone unaccustomed to her. History and social drama find a dexterous mix in her writing and we get trained to read new meanings in old ideologies and give new interpretations to historical events. Her “Wasted Morning” is a truly representative work.
11. Antonio Munoz Molina (Spain): Deserves the prize for the sheer sweep of talent that marks out his works. His “Like a fading Shadow’ and “The Manuscript of Ashes” are vastly different in its theme, treatment of subject and the craft employed, but they are real monumental works of art in their own right. Who can deny the sparkle? Often cinematic in its visual images, his writing is a celebration of life much like we have seen in Marquez.
12. Hamid ismailov: (Kyrgyzstan) Versatile artist who has dabbled in experimental work, fusion arts involving music, poetry and other forms. None has succeeded as much as Ismailov is reconciling Central Asian literary traditions with contemporary international realities. His “A Poet and Bin Laden” expertly blends reality and fiction that leaves you with a feeling that today’s fiction can be tomorrow’s reality. His recent works “Dead Lake” and “Devil’s Dance” are substantial creative efforts going by reports (I am yet to read them). But the parameters of the Academy fits him well.
The common thread for all the candidates above is their age bracket: they all fall within the age group of 55 to 75. That remains an unannounced preferred age group for the Academy.
Many others get eliminated in the race for reasons which have nothing to do with merit.
Olga Tokarczuk and Laszlo Krasznahorkai have won too many prizes recently and have been too much in the news. So likely to be eliminated in the race.
Ngugi wa thiong'o and Murakami have been leading speculation in the past and have remained betting favourites. So no way for them. Besides, Murakami is too voluminous and has become predictive these days in his writings.
Adunis, very deserving but age might go against him
Javier Marias, Enrique Vila-Matas and Antonio Lobo Antunes too have been favourites for some time. If one goes by the predilections of the Academy of late, their overriding popularity might work against them although all of them deserve to be honoured.
There are three Africans who truly deserves to be in the favoured list: Abdellatif Laabi, the Moroccan poet, Nuruddin Farah, the Somalian novelist and Nawal El Saadawi, the Egyptian crusader. But Laabi hasn’t written anything major in the last few years and Nuruddin Farah has been much discussed earlier too. Nawal El Saadawi is too old to be considered
Can Xue could be an Asian prospect, but with Ishiguro of Asian stock winning the last prize, it is unlikely that she will be looked at.

I uh, have quite a few issues with this. I mean, I know everyone hates me here but I don't think I've ever called someone "Asian stock." Are we also gonna say that they couldn't have two white people in a row win? Can Xue is a Chinese woman writing in Mandarin. Ishiguro is a British man writing in English. The both being Asian is completely irrelevant. Their writing is nothing alike.

"Murakami is too voluminous." He's never going to win but it has nothing to do with how much he's released. He's written much less than many many other winners. He's written less than some of the people you mention. Murakami's issue is that his recent works have been middling. Men Without Women featured some odd hits absolute worst writing ever and Killing Commendatore was full of all sorts of technology references that will be dated in just a few years. A good editor could've helped him edit his recent works into Nobel-quality work but instead they were published with every whim and cheesy unnecessary pop culture/technology lesson left in.

I doubt a single Academy member has read a Vollmann novel or that his name has ever made it even close to a shortlist. The Nobel library has barely any of his works and they haven't purchased one in over ten years.

"Olga Tokarczuk and Laszlo Krasznahorkai have won too many prizes recently and have been too much in the news. So likely to be eliminated in the race." This is uh.. not how things usually work. Orhan Pamuk had a massive trial that got international coverage for a year straight directly prior to winning. Loads of authors have won huge international awards directly prior to winning. Bob Dylan is never not in the news.

Tokarczuk "winning too many prizes" has been entirely dependent on foreign translations of her work becoming available. The Academy isn't going to punish an author because the rest of the world has suddenly discovered her outside of Poland.

 

[Ludus]

I think that both Bellatin and Castellanos Moya have a chance. Although CM has been translated more often and more of his books are available in the library. Maybe Bellatin is still not well known enough? I think CM has what it takes, even if some of his works are INSANE. The same could be said about Aira, but Moya also has the political and social commentary that Aira lacks and the Academy loves.

Many other Latin American household names could be added too, like

Andrés Neuman (Argentinian, very prolific, writing in pretty much any genre, finalist in some good prizes, widely translated, present in Nobel library)

Ana María Shua (also Argentinian, sadly has won only local prizes except for the guggenheim, but with an outstanding œuvre, also present in library but only one book in translation)

Rodrigo Rey Rosa (from Guatemala, very prolific and very present in the library, only two Spanish prizes but who knows, has lots of books translated and available)

Leonardo Padura (Cuban, some international prizes, few books in library, nice dude idk).

I didn't liked that much Like a Fading Shadow by Muñoz Molina, to be honest. Well written, has it's fair amount of good moments, but left me somewhat cold. Maybe The Polish Rider and Sepharad are better. The guy has lots of books that are slowly being considered as classics by many, like the ones mentioned above, Beltenebros, La noche de los tiempos, Beatus Ille. Unlike Daniel (whom I respect and love and admire very much im sorry) I think I would put him and Marías in a very similar level of status in the Spanish literary world, but Marías' somewhat outdated and very vocal views on current issues might give Muñoz Molina better chances of actually winning the thing (even if some of his opinions on the risks of technology are painfully obvious to anyone, Muñoz Molina has spoken in favor of feminism many times, a theme most likely central in the Academy's consideration)... Or maybe I just think Marías is kind of a prick, who knows ?

Also, I'm almost sure Tokarczuk is going to win the prize one year or another... Well, only if the neonazis don't get her first.

 

[Liam]

I know everyone hates me here

I do assure you, nobody on this board "hates" you. Sure, you rub some people the wrong way, but then, so do I, so does everyone. You can't please everybody. Your contributions, however, have been greatly appreciated (even when they occasionally caused touchy people to take umbrage).

 

[EllisIsland]

https://morose-mary.blogspot.com/2019/08/announcement-nobel-prize-for-literature.html

 

[redhead]

I mean, I know everyone hates me here

What Liam said. I know I always look forward to your posts, and even if I don’t agree with the contents, I always find them thought provoking.

 

[Nirvrithi]

Hey Nirvirthi. Thank you for this detailed insight on your favorites for the Nobel and welcome to the forum. Here are some comments I have on some of the names you list:

New names: As many users here I always thank for new names, if not likely to win the prize, of great quality and worthy of being read. Here is the case of Zoran Zivkovic and Gabriela Adamesteanu. Without knowing their merits or resumes, both can be considered underdogs, even in their own country, against names which you mentioned like Cartarescu or Ugresic (I know it's not the same country but it's Balcanic and language-wise) and one of my favourite poets, Ana Blandiana.

Bellatin and Castellanos Moya: I've read many novels by both of them and although I like what they do, I cannot consider them as real candidates for the Nobel, not even for the Cervantes to be honest. Bellatin does something quite similar to what Aira does, and although I'm not completely sold on Aira he keeps gaining momentum with his short, imaginative, divertimento novels.

Mia Couto: I couldn't agree more with you on this one. He's been a very solid writer since his debut with Sleepwalking, to the release of his latest monumental trilogy As Areias do Emperador, which I read a couple of months ago. He is a very gifted narrator which blends the socio political reality in Mozambique along with the oral traditions and the folklore of the native people.

Olga Tokarczuk and Laszlo Krasznahorkai: They have won many prizes because they are tremendous writers, which also fit perfectly on what the academy is looking for (even the age). Trust me, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this duo is mentioned as the recipients of the 18 and 19 awards.

Muñoz Molina: He is a fine writer, with a very broad spectrum crossing his ouvre. However, I'd still put Javier Marías ahead; Lately he has created two magnific novels in Thus the Bad Begins and Berta Isla, both of them highly praised by critics and media. Vila-Matas on the other side has lost momentum as his latest published works have not been well received. Marías is a very polemic individual, especially with his column in the journal El País, but I don't think this plays against him for his chances to the Nobel.

Hamid Ismailov: I recently discovered this writer. I read his Dead Lake and I thought it was fantastic. I think what you mention is key in giving him possibilities "None has succeeded as much as Ismailov is reconciling Central Asian literary traditions with contemporary international realities" For some reason I read it like the sentence the Academy quotes for which they award the prize to a writer.

Thanks Daniel for the thoughtful gesture. Yes, Ana Blandiana is a prospect, but I haven't read enough of her push her name into the top bracket. For that reason, I may include the Greek Ersi Sotiropoulos as a worthy prospect as much for her poetry as for her fiction.

With the induction of new, young blood into the Academy and with their urgent need to rescue themselves from possible ignominy, my gut feel is that they might take a departure from the rationale (if at all one existed) they applied in the past few years and come up with "agreeable" or even "controversial" names this time but certainly with unquestionable merit as a common denominator.

They have made it very similar to a stock market. Notwithstanding the most astute fundamental and technical analysis, the market keeps surprising you and challenges you to invent new theories of selection. So, if age is not a consideration, then you will agree that many more names would get into the larger canvas at both ends of the spectrum. So is the case with publication of recent major works and the tie between limited oeuvre and prolific output. As the reconstituted Academy is in an experimental mode until 2020, the new members could be wary of all these and the dice may not have an unpremeditated final rest.
If they go a bit off-beat and want to look at diverse literatures outside the “main frame” nations, names like Tonu Onnepalu (Estonia), Patrick Chamoiseau (Martineque), Tahar Bell Jelloun (Morocco) and Elias Khoury (Lebenon) could figure in the scheme of things. But, Elias Khoury will still be wild card entry and I would be the last one to push his name.

 

[Nirvrithi]

I think that both Bellatin and Castellanos Moya have a chance. Although CM has been translated more often and more of his books are available in the library. Maybe Bellatin is still not well known enough? I think CM has what it takes, even if some of his works are INSANE. The same could be said about Aira, but Moya also has the political and social commentary that Aira lacks and the Academy loves.

Many other Latin American household names could be added too, like

Andrés Neuman (Argentinian, very prolific, writing in pretty much any genre, finalist in some good prizes, widely translated, present in Nobel library)

Ana María Shua (also Argentinian, sadly has won only local prizes except for the guggenheim, but with an outstanding œuvre, also present in library but only one book in translation)

Rodrigo Rey Rosa (from Guatemala, very prolific and very present in the library, only two Spanish prizes but who knows, has lots of books translated and available)

Leonardo Padura (Cuban, some international prizes, few books in library, nice dude idk).

I didn't liked that much Like a Fading Shadow by Muñoz Molina, to be honest. Well written, has it's fair amount of good moments, but left me somewhat cold. Maybe The Polish Rider and Sepharad are better. The guy has lots of books that are slowly being considered as classics by many, like the ones mentioned above, Beltenebros, La noche de los tiempos, Beatus Ille. Unlike Daniel (whom I respect and love and admire very much im sorry) I think I would put him and Marías in a very similar level of status in the Spanish literary world, but Marías' somewhat outdated and very vocal views on current issues might give Muñoz Molina better chances of actually winning the thing (even if some of his opinions on the risks of technology are painfully obvious to anyone, Muñoz Molina has spoken in favor of feminism many times, a theme most likely central in the Academy's consideration)... Or maybe I just think Marías is kind of a prick, who knows 

Also, I'm almost sure Tokarczuk is going to win the prize one year or another... Well, only if the neonazis don't get her first.

Of the Latin American prospects you have listed, Ana Maria Shua stands out. True, she hasn’t gained the international stature she deserves and that’s sad indeed. If a woman writer from the South of America is a likely proposition, then why not Gioconda Belli, Luisa Valenzuela, Christina Peri Rossi or Diamela Eltit? In fact, Eltit could be an ideal candidate fulfilling almost all the parameters of the Academy.
A Latin American winner is long overdue. We lost two great prospects in Ricardo Piglia and Sergio Pitol with their deaths in 2017 and 2018. If it should be a male Latin American, then why not Antonio Skarmeta, Sergio Ramirez, Arturo Arias or Ariel Dorfman? If you stretch the age bracket to include the 80 plus writers, then why not Manlio Argueta or Ernesto Cardenal? If you stretch it to below 50 writers, even Yuri Herrera should be a serious candidate albeit his limited oeuvre.
Writers like Andres Neuman and Juan Gabriel Vasquez, in my view are yet to peak. They may get into that bracket in future, but for some indecipherable reason, I don’t think they are quite up there right now.

 

[Nirvrithi]

Thanks Red. Yes, Can Xue is a serious candidate from Asia. (sadly, we don’t see too many names from Asian countries who could win; there are a few South Korean writers though with great promise, but they are all in their 40s and are yet to peak in a typical “Nobel” sense. Jang Eun-jin, Lee Kiho, and Pyun Hye-young could all figure in discussions in the not so distant future).
I agree Ishiguro is vastly different from Can Xue whatever angle you look at. The ‘Asian stock’ mention is based on probability theory following the Academy thinking. But with the reconstituted Academy and one of the new members expressing her disapproval of all the Nobels awarded in the past few years barring the one for Modiano, we may be in for pleasant surprises. Certainly it adds to the excitement of speculation this year. Ge Fei of China may not be a serious candidate now but his “The Invisibility Cloak” brought out by NYRB was a revelation, more from an Asian perspective. Hopefully, he holds out promise for the future.

 

[redhead]

But with the reconstituted Academy and one of the new members expressing her disapproval of all the Nobels awarded in the past few years barring the one for Modiano, we may be in for pleasant surprises.

Who was this, if you don’t mind me asking. Do you have a link to where she says this?

Also I was just looking around and found an interview with the newly elected Jila Mossaed where she said she would try to promote the Farsi language and Persian literature with her new position. Could we soon see an Iranian/Middle Eastern winner?

 

[Nirvrithi]

Who was this, if you don’t mind me asking. Do you have a link to where she says this?

Also I was just looking around and found an interview with the newly elected Jila Mossaed where she said she would try to promote the Farsi language and Persian literature with her new position. Could we soon see an Iranian/Middle Eastern winner?

Mikaela Blomqvist
https://www.ozy.com/rising-stars/can-she-help-restore-trust-in-the-nobel-prize-for-literature/92107

 

[Ludus]

Of the Latin American prospects you have listed, Ana Maria Shua stands out. True, she hasn’t gained the international stature she deserves and that’s sad indeed. If a woman writer from the South of America is a likely proposition, then why not Gioconda Belli, Luisa Valenzuela, Christina Peri Rossi or Diamela Eltit? In fact, Eltit could be an ideal candidate fulfilling almost all the parameters of the Academy.
A Latin American winner is long overdue. We lost two great prospects in Ricardo Piglia and Sergio Pitol with their deaths in 2017 and 2018. If it should be a male Latin American, then why not Antonio Skarmeta, Sergio Ramirez, Arturo Arias or Ariel Dorfman? If you stretch the age bracket to include the 80 plus writers, then why not Manlio Argueta or Ernesto Cardenal? If you stretch it to below 50 writers, even Yuri Herrera should be a serious candidate albeit his limited oeuvre.
Writers like Andres Neuman and Juan Gabriel Vasquez, in my view are yet to peak. They may get into that bracket in future, but for some indecipherable reason, I don’t think they are quite up there right now.

Yeah, Shua is incredible. Also, giving her the prize would honor the long tradition of the Spanish language microfiction, alongside Augusto Monterroso, Luis Britto García, Luisa Valenzuela, Fernando Iwasaki, even mexicans like Juan José Arreola and Julio Torri. It's a very rich tradition that has been growing and may be in need of worldwide attention. Unfortunately, this lack of international attention might harm her possibilities.
You're right, Neuman and Vázquez might need more years to solidify their careers. The same could be said of very prominent young writers like Fernanda Melchor, Samantha Schweblin and Mariana Enríquez (the last two of them, Shua's disciples).

 

[Ludus]

Also, is there any way of figuring out if some members of the Academy read in Spanish? If there are no Spanish reading Academy members, then most of the Spanish speaking writers in the list are screwed, at least those who have not been widely translated yet.

 

[redhead]

Mikaela Blomqvist
https://www.ozy.com/rising-stars/can-she-help-restore-trust-in-the-nobel-prize-for-literature/92107

Thanks for the link. Looks like she’s technically not a part of the Academy and is instead one of the 5 independent members on the committee (the people who select the short list and present the rest of the academy with a name or three as potential laureates in September). Looks like she dislikes Dylan and Ishiguro as winners (about Ishiguro, she says, “He’s a competent writer, but I don’t think he has his own voice”) but likes Modiano, Jelinek, and Pinter.

Also, is there any way of figuring out if some members of the Academy read in Spanish? If there are no Spanish reading Academy members, then most of the Spanish speaking writers in the list are screwed, at least those who have not been widely translated yet.

In that link Nirvithi posted above, it mentions that she reads Spanish so they’re covered!

 

[EllisIsland]

Having read Mary's new post (linked above) I notice that Tua Forsström has a couple of books checked out at the library, but I cannot believe they would give it to one of their own.

 

[Daniel del Real]

To be honest, I don't see any Latin American writer as a serious contender for the Nobel. Not in many years to come either.
In the last decade we lost extraordinary writers who could have won the Nobel: José Emilio Pacheco, Carlos Fuentes, Juan Gelman, Sergio Pitol, Álvaro Mutis, Ricardo Piglia, even Fernando del Paso.
But right now, the generation below, the one that was destined to follow their success has not peaked yet and I don't think they ever will. Andrés Neuman, who I find incredibly dull; Juan Gabriel Vásquez who is not as consistent with his deliveries as he should; Castellanos Moya writing the same novel over and over again.
Remnants of the older generation are Ida Vitale, Ernesto Cardenal, Fina García Marrúz, Sergio Ramírez and Gioconda Belli, for which I only see merits on the first two, but without the international exposure they deserve and both being over 90 years old I see it highly unlikely.
You guys cannot be serious when talking about Samanta Schweblin, Mariana Enríquez, Yuri Herrera and Fernanda Melchor. They might be good and have potential but they're too young to be even looked at. Fernanda Melchor has only one successful novel and for that she thinks she's the greatest writer alive in México. Same situation with Emiliano Monge, in which case he's probably right, I'd toss his name to this 20-25 year bowl potential winners if they do everything right.
So really, right now, is Aira or Aira and I wouldn't bet for him. Can anyone check avalaibility of his books at the Nobel Library?

On the Spaniard side, Juan Goytisolo should have been a Nobel laureate, no doubt about it. After he passed away, Marías is the one that is clearly on top of the rest. Yes, feminists and millenails don't like him, but critics have been unanimous that his last three novels are outstanding (The Infatuations, Thus Bad Begins & Bertha Isla). Muñoz Molina and Vila-Matas keep themselves very busy, with almost a book ayear, but it seems their better works are way in the past. Now, let's not forget that El Poeta Gamoneda is still there and in my opinion he is the best poet alive in Spanish language. It's a shame he's not more recognized worldwide or in translation, but for sure he has the quality.
Now, what about a Spaniard writer who does not writes in Spanish? I'm thinking in Manuel Vilas who writes in gallego, Pere Gimferrer in catalán or Bernardo Atxaga in euskera.

 

[redhead]

Having read Mary's new post (linked above) I notice that Tua Forsström has a couple of books checked out at the library, but I cannot believe they would give it to one of their own.

Huh, weird. There’s not too many by her out, though. I can’t imagine them awarding Forsström now that she’s a part of the Academy, especially this year.

So really, right now, is Aira or Aira and I wouldn't bet for him. Can anyone check avalaibility of his books at the Nobel Library?

None of his are checked out right now. However, they do have 25 of his titles, which suggests they’re taking him at least somewhat seriously.

 

[Ludus]

You guys cannot be serious when talking about Samanta Schweblin, Mariana Enríquez, Yuri Herrera and Fernanda Melchor. They might be good and have potential but they're too young to be even looked at. Fernanda Melchor has only one successful novel and for that she thinks she's the greatest writer alive in México. Same situation with Emiliano Monge, in which case he's probably right, I'd toss his name to this 20-25 year bowl potential winners if they do everything right.

Yeah, that's what I said, just not as angrily ?

 

[redhead]

Short interview with Rebecka Kärde, another member of the "independent" committee (and only 27!!!): https://www.hu-berlin.de/en/press-portal/nachrichten-en/january-2019/nr_190104_00