Corswandt
FAFO
I don't think the Nobel committee is always conservative. Le Clezio is a great example of a radical writer (his early works). Or Jelinek. Or Saramago. Or Grass.
In terms of Pynchon I would say that Gravity's Rainbow will probably stick around as an important work, and perhaps Mason & Dixon, and I think it's for the same reason - they are anchored to a time that is not Pynchon's, and thus is able to remove itself from, well, his hippie/druggy/schlocky schtick. V, The Crying of Lot 49 and Vineland are all close to unreadable these days.
By awarding groundbreaking writers, I was thinking more on the lines of the Swedish Academy giving the prize to someone like Beckett. What you say of Le Clézio applies (even more so) to Claude Simon as a representative of the nouveau roman. But since Simon, there haven't been that many prizes for representatives of avant-garde (using the term very loosely here) literary movements such as post-modernism (the exception being the post-modernist writers who make use of magic realism).
Good points about Pynchon. I'd like to add that Inherent Vice sucked balls.
Little more than 12 hours to go and my picks are Kadare, Murakami and..................Claudio Magris!! Nobody has mentioned the great (pan-European) Italian writer this year. Maybe he's the dark horse.
I'm sure Claudio Magris has been considered over the past few years and will remain a contender even he it doesn't win this year as he fits the Nobel winner template quite well. Perhaps too well for my liking.