Going by the tweet Dan referred, if Tagore is the first non-European awarded and if that really indicates something - three parameters - non-European, writer in a non-European language and then a poet - but at least two combining, then the possibilities are immense. But if you make the third factor - being a poet foremost - non-negotiable, then we are left with these proximate choices - all poets:
Listed in the order of most likely to least likely:
1. Antjie Krog _ South Africa - Gandhi had his initial anti- apartheid campaign in South Africa before he moved base to India and he was closely associated with Tagore although not politically. Apartheid is a major theme with Krog. Both South Africa and India have a similar history of colonization with the British being the major colonizing power.
2. Abdelattif Laabi - Morocco - eminently deserving although the Tagore connect can't be clearly established.
3. Adonis - Syria - Perennial favourite: Asian, like Tagore.
4. Raul Zurita - Chile - the closest in looks to Tagore ( I met him a few years ago in an art Biennale where he had an interesting installation set up)
5. Bei Dao - China - Asian, like Tagore and perhaps the most influential of modern poets in the continent next to Adonis.
6. Ida Vitale - Uruguay - Very deserving, should have won earlier, but if age is not a deterrence for SA, better late than never.
7. Saadi Youssef - Iraq - Remains one of the most influential living Arab poets after Adonis.
8. Circe Maia - Uruguay - The second best bet from Uruguay and if SA feels 90 is a cut off age barrier and for that reason Ida Vitale is left out, then Maia in her late 80s can be a sane choice.
I have speculated enough and I am gasping already...In my time zone, the announcement should be round 5 in the evening..Let me get ready to watch it live with a piping hot cup of tea to flavour the announcement....
