If one thinks on what might be SA´s guidelines this year:
1-The necessity to surprise (I think that is a general guideline of SA. If they become too predicable they will become boring and people, including a certain WLF won´t be spending months and months any more trying to guess the winner.
2-Europe is particularly affected by the Ukraine war and its implications in its boundaries, its economics and social capacities. "This war is not fought in some distant continent and the refugees are not coming to us over the sea in fragile ships. They are our next door neighbors, their fate may be our fate tomorrow. In this sense, we are all Ukraine".
3-Sweden is feeling particularly affected by this war. I hadn´t realized until the conflict began, that Sweden and Russia are close neighbors. Now, the usually neutral Sweden is battling for her own security.
So, up to now it seems that the chosen author will be nearly or distantly somehow related to this conflict. On a first glance there seems to me to be little chance for any authors outside Europe.
Great post, my darling!
I have some impressions about your post and I'd like to do a reflection about the Prize in Literature.
Based on my perceptions about the Nobel Prize in Economics, the Prize for Gurnah last year and the horrible scenario that we've been living in nowadays, I've noticed that an aleatory event (in Economics we call it as "exogenous shock") could impact on the choice of the prize, but the committee prefers to wait or could analyse a previous event that has a relation with a current event. I could notice this based on my analysis of the previous prizes.
That's not an imediate stuff and not necessarily an external event has been occuring in any year impacts on the same choice by the committee.
The SA doesn't base itself in actual political events to decide a prize for someone. But these external events could impact in the future.
I find very difficult that 2022 Prize in Literature goes to a ukranian writer, but could be for a balkanian, a kurdish, a filipino, a vietnamese or a lybian, for example.
Therefore, my picks are:
- Balkans (because of the conflict occured in 90's):
?? Dubravka Ugrešić, Slavenka Drakulić or a croatian writer that we don't know (maybe
@Verkhovensky might list some names that we don't know and could be a potential nobelist);
?? Aleksandar Hemon or a bosnian writer that we don't know;
?? Drago Jančar or a slovenian writer that we don't know;
Or a serbian or a montenegrin writer and pacifist;
- Czech and Slovakia (pacifism and "the Velvet Revolution"):
?? Jáchym Topol (a complete writer);
?? Mila Haugová
- Asia (Vietnam War):
?? Dương Thu Hương, Bảo Ninh or a vietnamese writer that we don't know;
- Africa (Libya's Civil War):
?? Ibrahim Al-Koni or a libyan writer that we don't know;
- Kurdistan (Europe and Asia):
Firat Cewerî;
Salim Barakat;
Jan Dost;
Bachtyar Ali;
Rafiq Sabir or another kurdish writer that we don't know.
- Bonus (Brazil's bad politics for indigenous people):
?? Daniel Munduruku (an indigenous writer) and Milton Hatoum (he lives in Amazon).
